In September, stocks from recent harvests continue to meet household food needs and supply markets across the Grand South and Grand Southeast, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In the Grand Southeast, these outcomes are expected to continue through January 2025 given an abundant supply of locally produced cassava, sweet potatoes, and bananas as well as seasonal improvements in labor demand with the ongoing cash crops harvest, land preparation for off-season rice and for the main agricultural season, followed by the off-season rice harvest in November.
However, in the Grand South, while some areas will continue to rely on onion production and sales, food access and availability will deteriorate from October onwards – particularly in Ampanihy, Ambovombe, and Amboasary, which saw the worst impacts to harvests this year due to erratic rainfall. While households across the Grand South will begin to deplete their cassava and sweet potato harvests, households in worst-affected districts will exhaust their food stocks and rely fully on the markets, amid atypically high prices and additional seasonal price increases as well as below-average income. However, significant humanitarian food assistance delivery is expected to begin in October, mitigating worse outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in most areas while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely to develop in Bekily, Beloha, and Tshihombe.
Although most poorer households in the Grand South still have access to recent sweet potato and cassava harvests, below-average harvests during the main agricultural season forced some smallholders to harvest root and tuber crops earlier, reducing their overall yields and the duration of their food stocks. For worst-affected households, these stocks are already depleting, and households have begun to rely on markets, amid above-average prices. In August in the Toliara market, the prices of sweet potatoes increased by 74 percent year-on-year and by 27 percent compared to the two-year average, while both imported and local rice prices increased by 27 percent year-on-year. Although dried cassava prices in Ambovombe in August showed a decrease of 20 percent year-on-year, they are expected to remain above the five-year average until the next main harvest.
Across all rice-growing areas, labor opportunities are beginning to increase seasonally with current sowing and transplanting activities for the off-season. This additional income is helping to cover expenses incurred at the beginning of the new school year and for agricultural inputs in preparation for the main agricultural season. In the central zone, transplanting should have been completed by mid-September, as the harvest is expected before the heavy rains at the end of December. In the eastern and northern zones of the country, the average rainfall in June provided sufficient moisture for soil preparation for off-season rice. Those who started their transplanting early will have better yields in December. On the other hand, in some areas in the East, transplanting for terrace rice farming continues until the end of this month, with the harvest expected in January. Although cropped area is typically less than that cultivated during the main season, off-season rice production is expected to be in normal ranges, supporting household food stocks for one or more months, muting the impacts of the lean season during this time.
