Madagascar Key Message Update, August 2017
An early lean season in October expected for Southern Madagascar
Cassava and sweet potato harvests in Southern Madagascar are underway with near normal production. Poor household stocks will likely last until October 2017. Farmers in Boeny are harvesting their third season of rice, the Jeby rice, and production is expected to be better than the main season.
Rice imports tripled in the first semester of 2017 compared to last year in the same period, increasing from 86,000 MT in 2016 to more than 247,000 MT in 2017, which is 54 percent higher than the 5-year average, and just below the highest level in 2014, over the past ten years. Imported rice has filled the gap left by local rice in deficit areas, particularly in the South and the Southeast, and stabilized prices.
In August 2017, the Extreme South (MG 24) and Southwest Madagascar (MG 23) remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with some pockets of Crisis (Phase 3) in the commune of Beheloka, despite the ongoing good harvest of cassava and sweet potatoes which provided food and income to farmers. In the Southeast (MG 19),
July harvests slightly improved the situation and the area will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most parts of the Extreme South (MG 24), Southwest (MG 23) and Southeast (MG 19), except in Manakara and Vangaindrano, by the start of the lean season. Across Madagascar approximately half a million people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the last 3 months of 2017, with the vast majority in Southern Madagascar. At the peak of the lean season in early 2018, this number will grow above half a million people.