How severe, how many and when: During the current period (October to December 2020), 1.06 million people (27% of the analysed population) are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 204,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 859,000 in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). During the projected period (January to April 2021), the situation is expected to deteriorate with 1.35 million people likely facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). That includes 282,000 people expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 1.067 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Additionally, 135,476 children are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition in the ten analysed districts, including 27,137 CURRENT ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY (OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2020)
1.06 M 27% of the analysed population* People in high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above)
IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION Phase 5 0 Catastrophy Phase 4 204 000 Emergency Phase 3 859 000 Crisis Phase 2 1 654 000 Stressed Phase 1 1 192 000 Food security PROJECTED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY (JANUARY – APRIL 2021)
1.35 M 35% of the analysed population* People in high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above)
IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION Phase 5 0 Catastrophy Phase 4 282 000 Emergency Phase 3 1 067 000 Crisis Phase 2 1 618 000 Stressed Phase 1 942 000 Food security severe cases based on the three forms of acute malnutrition from SMART surveys.
Where and who: In the current period, out of the thirteen districts analysed, Amboasary Atsimo is experiencing a very concerning acute food insecurity situation with 20% of its population classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 45% in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This is followed by the districts of Bekily, Ambovombe and Beloha, which are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) but have significant proportions of their population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
During the projected period, the majority of the districts are at risk of experiencing a deterioration in the food security situation: Bekily will likely move to being in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while Amboasary Atsimo will likely remain in the same phase (Emergency).
Despite planned aid, several districts are expected to see the proportion of people in IPC Phase 3 or above significantly increase compared to the current period, namely Ambovombe, Tsihombe, Beloha, Betioky, Ampanihy and Betroka. The five communes of Fort-Dauphin are also expected to have a high proportion of people affected by high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above).
Despite floods expected in the Grand South East at the start of 2021, the area has been relatively spared from acute food insecurity.
During the current and projected periods, the districts are classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with between 10-15% of the people facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above).
With regards to acute malnutrition, for the current situation, two districts are classified in Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3): Amboasary Atsimo and Betroka, while seven districts are in Alert (IPC AMN Phase 2), and one district in Acceptable (IPC AMN Phase 1): Betioky Atsimo. Between January and April 2021, the nutrition situation will likely deteriorate in the district of Amboasary Atsimo, which will shift to Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) and the districts of Ambovombe, Bekily and Ampanihy to Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3). The situation in the Betroka district is not expected to improve in the projected period and will remain in Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3), while the five other districts will be in Alert (IPC AMN Phase 2).
Why: The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the long drought during the 2019-2020 crop year, seriously affected the availability and access to food in all the areas analysed. The major contributing factors to the deterioration of the nutritional situation include: inadequate food intake with rates between 1.2 and 2.2%, and low minimum diet with rates between 0 and 2%. Poor access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities also contributes to increasing levels of acute malnutrition. The mortality rate for Amboasary Atsimo and Ambovombe has reached emergency stages and is one of the factors exacerbating malnutrition in these districts.