Madagascar: Humanitarian Snapshot (December 2022)

OVERVIEW

In the Grand Sud of Madagascar, food security and nutrition are expected to deteriorate as the region enters the peak of the lean season (January to March). Following a large scale-up in humanitarian assistance, food insecurity and malnutrition improved in the Grand Sud in the first quarter of 2022. However, the planting of crops in 2022 was delayed by a poor start to the 2021-2022 rainy season and, although crops were eventually planted following rain brought by cyclones and storms, the situation remained precarious. 1.35 million people are acutely food insecure from November 2022 to March 2023 and 479,000 children and pregnant and breastfeeding women are expected to be acutely malnourished. Compounding the situation, the beginning of the 2022-2023 rainy season is expected to be below-average in much of Madagascar.

Meanwhile, malnutrition has risen in the Grand Sud-Est districts that were impacted by Tropical Cyclones Batsirai and Emnati. The number of children and pregnant and breastfeeding women admitted for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) from January to October 2022 increased across all districts in the Grand Sud-Est, excluding Vangaindrano District, compared to the same period in 2021, according to regular nutrition monitoring. The situation is particularly concerning in Farafangana and Manakara districts—which were directly hit by the back-to-back cyclones—as the admission rate is five times higher than 2021. About 874,000 people are acutely food insecure from November 2022 to March 2023 in areas affected by the cyclones.

At the same time, food and fuel prices are rising, with a year-on-year inflation rate of 10 per cent at the national level, according to the Madagascar Food Security and Nutrition Early Warning Bulletin issued in October. In the Grand Sud, some food commodities are showing a significant increase in prices compared to the three-year average, including imported oil (up 30 per cent), corn (up 22 per cent), and cowpeas (up 15 per cent). As a result of the lean season, production losses due to severe climatic events and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, the availability of cereals and legumes is expected to decline in the months ahead, resulting in households adopting harmful coping strategies in the Grand Sud and, potentially, the Grand Sud-Est.