Madagascar Food Security Outlook Update, October 2021 to May 2022

Situation Report
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Large-scale assistance supporting widespread Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) during 2021/22 lean season


  • Large-scale humanitarian assistance has been ongoing in southern Madagascar in mid- and late 2021, and available information suggest assistance will continue throughout the 2021/22 lean season. While Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes were initially anticipated in the absence of assistance, the large-scale and widespread delivery of food assistance is supporting improvement to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes. Available information on food security outcomes collected in late 2021 suggests that food assistance is mitigating worse outcomes across much of southern Madagascar. Despite area-level Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes, data also point to the likelihood that there remain households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) even in the presence of assistance. The highest populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are likely in Ampanihy and Tsihombe districts.

  • Forecasts indicate that October 2021 to May 2022 rainfall is likely to be average across the country. Despite forecast average rainfall, poor households in southern Madagascar continue to face difficulty accessing seeds and other necessary inputs due to very high costs. As a result, production across the south is expected to remain in line with levels that are well below the long-term average. Continued poor production across southern Madagascar will lead to staple food prices that continue to be above average. Food security is still expected to improve in mid-2022 with increased food available from the harvest, but assistance needs will remain higher than is typical for the harvesting period.