Madagascar Food Security Outlook Update, October 2019 to May 2020

Situation Report
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An early start of the rainy season in the extreme south is favorable for early crop development

Key Messages

• Rainfall in the 2019/2020 rainy season is forecast to be below average in southern Madagascar, but average to above average in the central highlands, and above average in the north. This is favorable for national crop production but may be challenging for agriculture in the south.

• Food prices are currently stable throughout the country due to stable market supply and the availability of households’ stocks, particularly in the South.

• Pest infestations may be a determinant of this season’s agricultural production in the south as fall armyworm is now endemic, and Malagasy migratory locusts were reported in the southwest in September.

• In October 2019, poor and very poor households in the most southwest and extreme south districts of Madagascar are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with the impact of humanitarian food assistance in Beloha are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), and households in Ampanihy are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) because of below average staple production and the persistence of high rates of malnutrition.