Attachments
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes likely to emerge in the Grand South during 2022/23 lean season
KEY MESSAGES
• A continuation of large-scale assistance is required to prevent the emergence of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in southwestern Madagascar during the 2022/23 lean season, following severe drought and extremely low maize and anticipated poor cassava and sweet potato harvests. Across most of the Grand South, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes currently persist – despite it being the post-harvest period – as ongoing humanitarian assistance is mitigating worse outcomes through August. Cumulative rainfall and soil moisture conditions in the southeast will drive relatively better outcomes as most of the rest of the Grand South is expected to experience Crisis (ICP Phase 3) through January 2023. Northern Atsimo Andrefana, also hard-hit by severe drought, is expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) given well below average harvests and reduced crop sales. Food assistance needs throughout the 2022/23 lean season are expected to be similar to last year and well above the five-year average.
• Meanwhile, areas worst affected by the above-average 2022 cyclone season are experiencing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2), although significant pockets of households are likely experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to crop and infrastructure losses. As recovery continues, these areas are expected to slowly improve but will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2023. In the rest of the country, near-average production and near-normal incomes will continue to drive Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the outlook period.
• According to key informants, national-level crop production is near normal, despite significant, localized losses to rice, cassava, and coffee and other cash crops in eastern Madagascar and moderate losses to vanilla and cloves in northern Madagascar due to cyclone damage. In the Grand South, however, multiple shocks – including late-onset rains, severe drought, pests, cyclone impacts, and above-average input prices have led to a significant reduction in maize harvests.
Declines in crop production were noted across the region, however, were more pronounced (approximately 70 percent below normal) in the districts of Ampanihy, Betioky, Bekily, Betroka, and Taolagnaro. Household stocks are therefore significantly below average, varying from one to five months this season.
• Across the Grand South, prices are currently stable but remain high. FEWS NET data shows that maize grain prices fell seasonally in April when supplies from the 2022 harvest began boosting market availability. Still, prices were exceptionally high across all monitored markets – and even double the five-year average in some markets – reflecting reduced harvests in 2022. Dried cassava from central Madagascar, a key supplier for the Grand South, is available and prices were stable but were 55 percent above the five-year average in April. Similarly, prices of local rice – generally preferred to imported rice –were between 23 and 48 percent higher than the five-year average in April, significantly constraining household purchasing power when households in the Grand South are heavily reliant on market purchases to meet their food needs.