Madagascar Food Security Outlook Update, June 2018 to January 2019
Poor rainfall will again lead to below-average main staple harvests in Southern Madagascar
• National rice production will likely be 3.6 Million MT which is 17 percent higher than last year and near the 5-year average. Overall national maize production will likely be 264,000 MT which is 6 percent lower than last year and 21 percent below the 5-year average. National cassava production will likely be 2.6 Million MT which is 3 percent higher than last year but 7 percent below the 5-year average.
• There was unexpected rainfall in Southwestern Madagascar during the first week of June although the rainy season usually ends in May. Between 10 and 30 mm fell in Tulear II, Betioky and Ampanihy which allowed farmers to prepare lands and plant off-season crops of sweet potatoes and pulses in localized communes.
• Prices for most staple food prices stabilized in April/May. Imported rice prices remain the same as last year at the same period but are 23 percent above the 5-year average. Local rice prices are 11 percent higher than last year and 31 percent above the 5-year average. Maize prices are 15 percent lower than last year but remain 17 percent higher than 5-year average.
• Most humanitarian assistance ended in May 2018 despite continued needs in the south. Planned humanitarian assistance is minimal for the outlook period of July 2018 to January 2019 and is expected to cover less than 20 percent of the population living in areas of concern.
• The current food security situation is improved compared to previous months due to ongoing harvests, but areas of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) remain in the District of Beloha (part of Livelihood Zone 24) and in the Mahafaly Plain (Livelihood Zone 23). Other parts of the country including the Southeast of Madagascar (Livelihood Zone 19) and in the part of the Southwest included in Livelihood Zone 20 are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).