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Key Messages
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are observed across much of the Grand South, remote areas of the Grand Southeast, and in the eastern districts most affected by Cyclone Gezani. Poor households are struggling to mitigate their food consumption gaps after depleting their food stocks atypically early after consecutive years of below average harvests. Many households are coping by consuming atypically high amounts of dangerous wild foods, selling productive assets, or taking on debts to purchase food amid rapidly increasing food prices and below-average income from agricultural labor and self-employment.
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Between March and September, improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the Grand South and the Southeast are expected with the arrival of the main harvests. However, poor households most impacted by past weather shocks, such as droughts and cyclones, are likely to struggle to meet their essential non-food needs as they service past debts.
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Cyclone-affected households in the East are likely to face protracted livelihood recovery due to displacement, high shelter repair costs, and damage to rice fields and aquaculture, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May. Improved Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist through September as households gradually replant and rebuild productive assets**.** While two-month cash transfers and humanitarian food assistance are reaching at least 26 percent of the population in Toamasina I and II, limited coverage in other affected districts is likely to constrain broader recovery and slow improvements in food security.
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FEWS NET estimates that between 1.5-1.99 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance during the peak of the lean season from February to May 2026. Needs typically decline seasonally between June and September with the arrival of the main harvest; however, needs will remain elevated due to the lingering impacts of drought and cyclone-related crop losses.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of February 20, 2026.