Madagascar Food Security Outlook October 2023 - May 2024

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in the Grand South amid insufficient humanitarian assistance

Key Messages Madagascar

• Food Security Outlook October 2023 - May 2024 The ongoing strong El Niño is expected to result in average to above-average rainfall in the north. However, in southern Madagascar, erratic and below-average rainfall is expected to cause below-average agricultural production during the 2023/ 24 season. Rainfall in October was close to average, with localized deficits along the western coast, and some households began planting main-season crops. Close monitoring of rainfall totals and distribution will be required to assess the severity of adverse impacts on cropping conditions. In addition, the number of cyclones is currently predicted to be below average for the whole country through January and below average in southern Madagascar through April because of the positive decaying Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) event. While the risk of a cyclone impact is reduced, the risk of catastrophic damage from an intense cyclone strike remains.

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely ongoing across the Grand South, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected to emerge when most households deplete their stocks of roots and tubers between November and December. Very poor and poor households will have to rely on market purchases of food amidst seasonally increasing food prices. High food prices and below-average incomes will greatly constrain households from meeting their minimum kilocalorie needs, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the peak lean season. Significant humanitarian assistance is expected to lead to improvements to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in Amboasary Sud and Betioky districts during the February to May projection period. Once harvesting begins in March, most households are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to seasonal improvements in food availability.
  Households will likely have difficulty meeting their non-food needs, given below-average incomes from agricultural activities and the need to service debts accrued during several consecutive years of severe drought.

• In the Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely present as households have not yet depleted their stocks of roots and tubers. Once stocks are exhausted around November, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to occur in the most isolated districts with the least market access and cash crop production. Though households will have access to off-season rice crops starting in December, stocks are only expected to last through January at most. Offseason and main-season production is likely to be below average, given below-average and erratic rainfall forecasts.
  Improvements to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected during the February to May projection period in Befotaka, Nosy Varika, and Ikongo because of significant humanitarian assistance. By contrast, other districts in the Grand Southeast are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through the scenario period. With seasonally improved access to incomes from clove harvesting and the availability of a wide range of fruits (notably lychees, breadfruit, jackfruit, and mangoes) for consumption and sale, households will be able to purchase enough food to meet their minimum food needs.

• Humanitarian food assistance is ongoing across much of the Grand South and Grand Southeast and is likely to increase as the scenario period progresses. Current plans indicate distributions unlikely to reach sufficient proportions of the population to mitigate worse area-level outcomes until levels of assistance increase in early 2024. During the peak of the lean season between January and March, significant humanitarian food and cash distributions are planned in several worst-off districts in the Grand South and the Grand Southeast. Improvements to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected between February and May in Amboasary Sud,
  Betioky, Befotaka, Nosy Varika, and Ikongo, as at least 25 percent of these districts' population will meet at least 50 percent of their kilocalorie needs with humanitarian food or cash assistance.