Madagascar Food Security Outlook, October 2017 to May 2018
Expected rains in Southern Madagascar will be favorable for maize and pulse planting
- Both national rice and maize production are below the 5-year average and less than last year. This year the country’s main rice producing region had the lowest production ever recorded. National cassava production is also below the 5-year average and less than last year, but the harvest period is ongoing in the south, in addition to the ongoing off-season sweet potato harvest.
- The price of imported rice is currently 22 percent above the 2012-2016 average. Prices of local cereals are above the five-year average while prices of local rice are 21 percent higher than last year, and those of maize decreased by 9 percent. Prices for tubers are 7 to 22 percent lower than last year, cassava are similar to the five-year average and potatoes are 27 percent lower.
- Many households are still consuming their own production from recent harvests, but some very poor households have depleted their stocks and are consuming purchased foods. Consumption of imported rice, which is the main substitute for locally grown products for poor households during the lean season, has started to increase in urban centers and northern Madagascar due to high prices of other foods, and in Southern Madagascar where the shift comes when cassava/sweet potatoes stocks are depleted.
- Areas of the extreme South area expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2017 to January 2018, except the urban districts of Manakara and Vohipeno in the southeast. The situation in the region will likely improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to May 2018 with the expected maize and pulse harvests.