Without large-scale aid, area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely during 2021/22 lean season
A significant scale-up of sustained assistance across southern Madagascar is required to prevent high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality, particularly in Ambovombe and Ampanihy districts, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected during the 2021/22 lean season, with some populations expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Ambovombe. Leading up to the 2021/22 lean season, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in these districts with households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Other areas in southern Madagascar will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the outlook period, with a significant number of poor households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
Three districts in the southeast are also expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from October 2021 to January 2022 as a result of a severe rainfall deficit in January 2021 that negatively affected rice crop development at the transplanting phase. This led to lower household food stocks and lower income earning, forcing very poor households to sell more productive assets and livestock than usual.
The persistence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in southern Madagascar is driven by below-normal staple crop production, high food prices, and low labor opportunities resulting from successive years of drought. Rainfall forecasts call for below average precipitation between October and December 2021, the start of the 2021/22 rainfall season, lowering expectations for significant recovery.