Across the Grand South and Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail between June and September, when needs remain seasonally low. Food and cash crop production is expected to be below average this season throughout the Grand South, the Grand Southeast, and in parts of northern and eastern Madagascar due to weather shocks, such as erratic rainfall in the south, the passage of cyclones in the north and east, and higher instances of pests. Harvests are, however, likely to be better than in previous drought years, supporting improved outcomes during the post-harvest period.
Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected starting in October with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to emerge in parts of the Grand South where lower levels of humanitarian food assistance are expected. As stocks deplete, households will become progressively reliant on markets to meet their food needs, albeit amid higher-than-normal prices and below-average incomes. Humanitarian food assistance is expected to close food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods in most areas of concern, with 280,000 households targeted to receive half rations throughout the lean season in the Grand South and Grand Southeast.
Areas of highest concern are Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe where assistance levels will be unable to mitigate worse outcomes with the onset of the lean season. Other areas of the Grand South, including Ampanihy, Amboasary, and Ambovombe, are still likely to have populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) despite assistance mitigating outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in these areas.
The forecasted average start of rainfall for the next agricultural season will support the continued recovery of crop and livestock production. However, cropped area across the Grand South and in parts of the Grand Southeast and northern regions is likely to be constrained due to middle and better-off households’ reduced capacity to purchase inputs and demand labor in the wake of multiple shocks in recent years, in turn limiting income-generating opportunities for poorer households.
