Attachments
- Appeal: MDRMG021
- Total DREF Allocation: CHF 144,361
- Crisis Category: Yellow
- Hazard: Other
- People Affected: 90,000 people
- People Targeted: 9,000 people
- Event Onset: Sudden Operation
- Start Date: 26-10-2023
- Operational End Date: 31-01-2024
- Total Operating Timeframe: 3 months
- Targeted Areas: Analamanga, Atsimo-Andrefana, Boeny, Haute Matsiatra, Vakinankaratra, Vatovavy-Fitovinany
Description of the Event
Approximate date of impact
Madagascar's presidential elections were scheduled for 9 November 2023, but were postponed until 16 November. As the election had already been delayed once before, the Malagasy RC set the period from 09/11/2023 to 19/11/2023 as being highly likely for an escalation of the situation. However, an alert period of 3 months (until January 2024) is necessary due to the possibility of post-election violence throughout the country.
Provide any updates in the situation since the field report and explain what is expected to happen.
The presidential election in Madagascar was held in 2023. The last elections were relatively calm, however, since independence in 1960, the presidential election process has always been characterized by violence and demonstrations, with several people injured or killed. Between 1991 and 2018, all elections were marked by minor or major troubles, sometimes leading to electoral disputes, protests and violence against property and people. During the previous election, several alliances were formed within the National Assembly to challenge the electoral code, depending on the interests of each party, particularly their MPs. The 2018 presidential election was the starting point for a new pre-election crisis. Two main political parties, supported by other minor parties, succeeded in mobilizing the population in the capital and the country's major cities for a demonstration. An initial violent confrontation between protesters and police took place on 21 April 2018, leaving 2 people dead and 17 injured. The protest movement continued peacefully after this confrontation, when the forces of law and order decided to stop intervening to prevent demonstrations. Political negotiations lasted around two months, at the end of which a political agreement was reached to set up a consensus government made up essentially of 3 major alliances to organize the presidential election; and the President of the Republic was kept in his post.
The country has also experienced periods of political instability. The 2009 crisis was the biggest political crisis to hit the country since its independence in 1960. The crisis resulted in the unconstitutional change of regime of former President after three months of intense popular movement. Supported by the army, the leader of this movement succeeded to head a political transition that lasted 5 years. The 2009 crisis was distinguished from other political crises by the high number of deaths, hundreds of injuries, job losses, its protracted nature, the increase in violence and looting, and the army's heavy intervention.
Since the last elections, the accumulation and multiplication of natural disasters (cyclones, floods, drought, epidemics, etc.), as well as di cult economic and social conditions, have significantly affected Madagascar. These various crises have weighed heavily on the country's socio-economic life and are compounded by various governance problems in a number of areas. The current government is facing unprecedented socio-political and economic tensions as it approaches the end of its mandate, on the eve of the 2023 presidential election.
Demonstrations took place since 2 October, with over 10,000 people demonstrating in Antananarivo (towards Ankazomanga, Anjanahary, Ampasapito, Behoririka), Tulear, Majunga, Antsirabe, Mananara nord, Mananjary, and Fianarantsoa. The demonstrations, which began peacefully, gradually turned violent after the gatherings began. The official number of people injured and affected is still unknown for the last two weeks of demonstrations, but the Red Cross assisted 11 people and 146 volunteers/employees were mobilized. The data reported here only relates to areas where the Malagasy Red Cross was able to intervene (in total, 5 injured people received first aid from the Malagasy Red Cross when the demonstrations began on 2 October). The total number is probably higher than that reported by the Red Cross because it does not have access to other data from all the demonstration points.
Generally, despite localized violence and riots, the entire electoral process was fairly calm, both on election day and when the results were announced. Propaganda days remain the only period when the threat of disorder was at its highest. However, the MRC teams were on standby, ready to be deployed whereas manifestations occur in every outskirts or in the heart of the cities. When waiting for the results' proclamation, the risk of political demonstrations getting out of hand was also high. But at the end, no critical contestations have been noticed, and the normal life has quickly regained.