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Madagascar

Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report (October 2024)

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Executive Summary

Climate change has made delivering better development in Madagascar ever more urgent. This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) finds that Madagascar’s aspiration to evolve into an emerging country by 2040 will be derailed unless it can bolster its resilience to intensifying climate shocks to safeguard its modest development gains and boost economic growth. The high frequency of extreme climate shocks since the 1970s has led to significant macroeconomic disturbances and weak growth. This CCDR examines the implications of future climate change for Madagascar’s growth, and the potential benefits of both structural reforms and adaptation investments. It outlines three priority areas for building resilience to climate change, and calculates the costs needed to achieve this. It provides detailed recommendations for finding the finance required, as well as for implementing the policy challenges identified.

Madagascar is especially vulnerable to climate change

Madagascar is considered one of the countries most vulnerable to, and least prepared to cope with, climate change, yet is responsible for only 0.09 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over the past 20 years, the island nation has been hit by 35 cyclones, 8 floods, and 5 periods of severe drought: a three-fold increase in such events compared to the previous 20-year period. Madagascar has the highest risk of cyclones in Africa, experiencing three to four cyclones per year on average between November and April, and a major tropical cyclone once every three years. Total losses from cyclones in 2020 alone were equivalent to 4.8 percent of GDP, according to the World Bank’s Global Rapid Damage Estimation (GRADE). Severe multi-year drought has an even more profound effect than cyclones, deepening poverty and food insecurity, especially in the south.

Climate change projections predict continued warming and increased rainfall variability, leading to more intense and frequent climate-related impacts. Under mid-range and high-emissions scenarios, warming of up to 4°C could be expected by 2100 in Madagascar. While the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall is projected to decrease, the intensity of these storms is expected to worsen, with annual damages expected to increase almost fivefold by 2050 relative to the baseline, and higher under a pessimistic (high-emissions) scenario.

Madagascar’s unique ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change through ocean acidification and sea-level rise. Madagascar is a global biodiversity hotspot; it contains 5 percent of the world's biodiversity and 90 percent of species are endemic to the island. However, a large number are threatened with extinction. With 5,000 km of coastline, Madagascar is also known for its unique coral reef ecosystems, which draw a significant portion of tourists visiting the island. Addressing climate variability is becoming an urgent development priority if it is to preserve its rich natural capital and the associated essential global public good services it provides.