GIEWS Update: The Republic of Madagascar - Erratic weather conditions and conflict curb 2021 production prospects in northern provinces, likely increasing the levels of food insecurity, 22 February 2021

Situation Report
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  • Rainfall deficits since the start of the cropping season in northern Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces have negatively affected crops, curbing cereal production prospects in 2021.

  • The ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado Province and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have heightened households’ vulnerability and are expected to aggravate conditions in 2021.

  • The 2021 cyclone season is still active and more cyclones could further undermine food availability and access in the north.

In the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula, weather conditions since the start of the cropping season in November 2020 have been unfavourable, diminishing production prospects of the 2021 cereal crop. Moreover, the ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado Province, which has already caused the displacement of over 565 000 people, has disrupted farming activities and negatively impacted the area planted to food crops, particularly cereals. In these provinces, the prevalence and severity of food insecurity are already high due to the impact of the conflict and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a low harvest in 2021 would likely worsen the situation.