Madagascar

GDO Analytical Report: Drought in southern Madagascar - January 2021

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Executive summary

  • A pronounced rainfall deficit that accumulated throughout 2020, due to scarce precipitation during the first half of 2020 and the beginning of the 2020/2021 rainy season, is exacerbating the exposure to food insecurity of rural communities of southern Madagascar, hampering crop growth, and threatening the water supply for much of 2021.

  • After months of poor precipitation, the insufficient coping capacity of the affected communities has exposed them to severe food insecurity. The current conditions may therefore unleash a large-scale crisis, in a region that is already badly hit by the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • According to forecasts, average precipitation can be expected up until March 2021, except in the east part of the country, where below average conditions are forecasted. Thus, even in absence of any further worsening of the deficit, the annual rainfall balance will probably not recover, and is likely to remain negative until October 2021.