Attachments
Highlights
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Dry conditions intensified in the southern half of the region, threatening production prospects in several areas. Abnormally high temperatures accompanied these dry conditions. Short term rainfall forecasts suggest little respite in the near-term.
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Good rains were received in the northern half of the region, promoting good crop conditions.
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A cyclone made landfall in Madagascar, causing fatalities, displacement of populations, damage to infrastructure and flooding of thousands of hectares planted to rice.
Regional Summary
Dry conditions in the southern half of the region intensified in December through to mid-January. Figure 1 shows the total rainfall from October 2017 to midJanuary 2018 as a percent of average, with brown colours showing areas where the seasonal rainfall to date is well below average. Figure 2 shows rainfall for the 3-week period up to 17 January, with brown areas again showing areas where very little rainfall was received during that period. The dry conditions were accompanied by above normal temperatures, thereby increasing the rate of evapotranspiration, and subsequent loss of the soil moisture which crops rely on for development. Rainfall forecasts for the next 1 to 2 weeks indicate a high likelihood that the hot dry conditions will continue in many areas, particularly southern and central Mozambique, southern Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Reports indicate that farmers in some of the affected areas had not yet managed to plant by mid-January, as insufficient rain for planting and germination was received. In many areas where planting did take place, maize crops are reported to be experiencing moderate to high levels of moisture stress, with some crops close to permanent wilting point.
The combination of these factors implies that there is a high likelihood that rain-fed crop production in the southern half of the region will be negatively impacted this season by the ongoing hot, dry conditions.
According to satellite rainfall estimates (Figures 1 and 2), areas that are currently being impacted by the dry conditions include southern Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, south-western Madagascar, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, Namibia, most of South Africa (excluding some north-eastern areas), southern and central Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
In contrast, the northern half of the region has generally received above average rainfall since the beginning of the