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Madagascar + 14 more

Food Security Early Warning System - Agromet Update, Issue 02: 2024/2025 Agricultural Season (15 January 2025)

Attachments

Highlights

• Cumulative rainfall from October to early January has varied, with large rainfall deficits in Madagascar, southern and northern Mozambique, Malawi, western South Africa, southern Tanzania, and parts of Zambia. Eastern Madagascar experienced its driest October-to-December on record, while areas like Botswana, northern Namibia, and southern Zimbabwe received above-average rainfall.

• Onset of rainfall in several areas, including eastern Madagascar, southern Mozambique, and southern Zambia, was delayed by at least 30 days. Dry spells and high temperatures in December stressed crops, with some regions, like Malawi, reporting crop wilting and replanting efforts.

• December saw above-average temperatures across much of the region, with heatwave alerts issued in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. High temperatures exacerbated soil moisture loss and crop stress, particularly in areas with low rainfall.

• Vegetation recovery remains slow in some areas affected by previous droughts, with poor grazing conditions persisting in Namibia, Botswana, and parts of South Africa. Livestock health is under strain, but recovery is possible with forecasted rainfall through March.

• Madagascar faces a high risk of locust infestations, threatening agriculture, while Fall Armyworm outbreaks in southern Malawi highlight the need for enhanced pest monitoring and management.

• Four named tropical storms/cyclones have been recorded so far this season, two of which caused significant damage in the region. Currently active Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi has impacted Madagascar and Mozambique, and damage assessments are still ongoing. Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido caused severe impacts in Mozambique, Malawi and Comoros, with over 130 reported fatalities and over 500,000 people affected in the three Member States.

• Normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for the southern half of the region from January to March, providing opportunities for recovery in some areas. However, outcomes remain uncertain in regions with persistent rainfall deficits, where crop production and grazing conditions are at risk. The seasonal rainfall forecast will be updated at SARCOF, being held 28-30 January in Madagascar.

• Critically low water levels at Kariba Dam (3% capacity) and Cahora Bassa Dam (20% capacity) are severely impacting energy supply in the region. Zambia and Zimbabwe are already experiencing widespread load-shedding, disrupting agriculture, industry, and livelihoods. Cahora Bassa is a major contributor to the Southern African Power Pool, and the low dam levels pose a significant energy security risk to several SADC countries that import power from Mozambique.

• Climate-sensitive diseases remain a significant concern in the SADC region. Eight Member States experienced outbreaks of cholera between 2022 and 2024. Angola has reported new suspected cases in January 2025. The risk for cholera, malaria, diarrheal diseases, and heat-related illnesses, all of which are exacerbated by climatic conditions, emphasize the need for proactive health interventions.