Food Security Early Warning System - Agromet Update, Issue 01: 2024/2025 Agricultural Season (22 November 2024)

Highlights

• As of early November 2024, many areas had not yet recorded an effective onset of rainfall. The rainfall season typically starts in mid-November in most parts of the region. North-western and southeastern parts of the region that usually have an onset by October have received below average rainfall to date, indicating a slow start to the season. For many areas, the planting window is still open, and planting is possible until December.
• Vegetation conditions are currently below average, following the 2023/24 drought that reduced grazing and water availability for livestock in many areas, negatively affecting livestock conditions. This is expected to impact draught power available for the planting season.
• The Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) was released in August and predicted there is a greater probability of normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of the region. The central, southern and northeastern areas are forecast to have normal to below-normal rainfall in October-to-December, signaling a potential slow onset to the season.
• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is forecast to transition to a weak La Niña phase before the end of 2024. La Niña typically results in above average rainfall in most parts of the region, except in the northern areas where it usually results in below average seasonal rainfall. The forecast weak La Niña conditions are associated with greater uncertainty in rainfall outcomes compared to typical La Niña events. Timely updates and localized advisories will be vital for proactive planning.
• Critically low water levels at Kariba Dam, caused by consecutive low rainfall seasons in the Zambezi Basin, have led to extensive load-shedding in Zambia and Zimbabwe. This has disrupted irrigation, industrial activities, and livelihoods.
• A forecast for a normal to above normal tropical cyclone season for 2024/25 is indicating near to above normal risk of impacts in the eastern parts of the region. The first Tropical Cyclone of the season, Bheki formed in mid-November and was forecast to move westwards, passing close to Mauritius.