Attachments
Key messages
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Conflict risk in Libya is “Significant”. The country’s history of conflict and political instability are key drivers of vulnerability. In the past decade, the country has experienced upheavals including civil war, foreign intervention, and factional power struggles. A 2020 ceasefire brought some respite, but delayed elections in 2022 fueled tensions. Limited territorial integrity contributes to low resilience. Weak state institutions foster a fragmented political landscape and allowing armed non-state actors to flourish. Prolonged displacement and migrant risks exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.
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Current climate risk is “Significant”. Water scarcity, temperature rises and extreme events threaten water resources, agriculture and livelihoods. Governance deficits and a lack of national strategies magnify the impact of climate-related disasters, exemplified by the 2023 Derna incident.
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The economic landscape faces “Minor” risk. A key driver of vulnerability is food insecurity, brought about by declining agricultural outputs and heavy reliance on food imports. Prolonged conflict, the disruption of agricultural services, and global food price shocks contribute to the difficult economic situation. Libya's resilience is hampered by overreliance on hydrocarbons, a lack of diversification, and external shocks. Although Libya is an upper-middle-income country, challenges from conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic and oil blockades persist, limiting its growth potential.
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Libya is facing “Moderate” social risk. The situation has improved marginally since 2010. High unemployment, especially among young people and women, contributes to economic disenfranchisement. Limited resilience stems from low participation of women in the labour force. Health coverage and water and sanitation services have been improving, but deteriorating infrastructure and a lack of coordination pose challenges. The country’s healthcare system faces obstacles including inadequate resources, limited access in certain areas, and the lingering effects of conflict. The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines was slow compared with the rest of the region because of territorial insecurity, financial constraints, and a lack of medical equipment.
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Institutional risk in Libya is “Severe”. The situation is marked by fragmentation, competing power centres, and a lack of an effective central authority. Competing armed factions and conflicting interests contribute to the division of the nation and the deepening of mistrust. Corruption and tribalism persist, hindering governance and financial control. Although Libya produces oil, budget deficits persist because of institutional shortcomings and a general lack of accountability. A Government of National Unity has been set up; although this is a positive step, the Government has struggled to unify contested institutions.