New SANA Briefing Paper: Southern Libya Destabilized, The Case of Ubari
Overview
From late 2014 to early 2016—in the security and governance vacuum that has characterized Libya since its 2011 revolution— a conflict raged between the indigenous Tuareg and Tubu tribes of the south-western town of Ubari. At the local level, the battle revolved around economic assets as well as identity rights. Yet as the country’s rival national governments and international powers increasingly meddled in the fighting, the Ubari conflict came to be viewed as a proxy war. This report explores the events, context, and outcome of the Ubari conflict, as well as the lingering threats to the stability of south-western Libya and the wider region.
Key findings
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Outside interference played a significant role in prolonging the conflict in Ubari. Regional and international meddling exacerbated fault lines in the south, while locals aligned themselves with national-level factions and competing governments to receive arms, logistics, and political support.
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Unresolved issues regarding the citizenship status of the indigenous Tuareg and Tubu in southern Libya limit their employment options and curtail their freedom of movement.
As a result, members of these communities are not only more likely to engage in the trafficking of migrants and contraband, but are also more vulnerable to recruitment as paid fighters by Libya’s warring parties and extremists. -
The main threats to a lasting peace in Ubari and its surroundings are the absence of a unified Libyan government and neutral security institutions; ongoing battles for national and local power and territory; and a lack of investment in infrastructure, service delivery, and the local economy.
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Should the peace agreement in Ubari collapse, repercussions are likely to be felt at the regional level. Local communities could remobilize cross-border kin as they did during the recent conflict, destabilizing neighbouring countries; at the same time, the security void could allow traffickers and extremist armed groups to thrive.
Download Briefing Paper: Southern Libya Destabilized.