Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected during the post-harvest period
• Below-average cereal production, reduced income from casual labor, below-average remittances, and projected above-average maize meal prices will drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from June to September among poor farming households. As food security conditions deteriorate, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected from October to January.
• Based on the El Niño forecast, below-average rainfall is the most likely outcome during the early portion of the Southern Africa rainy season between October 2018 to January 2019. Based on this forecast for the upcoming season, the availability of labor is expected to be lower than normal during the outlook period, and increased competition for work is expected to push down wage rates.