Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected between October 2024 to March 2025 in the south, southwest, and some eastern parts of Lesotho, including areas of high concern (Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Maseru, Quthing, and Qacha’s Nek districts). Many households depleted their food stocks from the 2024 harvest atypically early (July/August) and are expected to have below-average purchasing capacity constrained by above-average staple food prices and below-average incomes. Poor households who face difficulties accessing food and income are engaging in Crisis coping strategies such as selling productive assets, consuming retained seed stocks, and reducing non-food expenditures (e.g., purchase of agricultural inputs), which may limit households’ future coping capacity. As the harvest becomes available in April/May, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to emerge.
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the rest of the country as poor households will be able to meet food needs from a combination of purchases and limited supplies of previously harvested stocks. However, most will likely continue to have difficulty meeting their non-food needs.
FEWS NET projects 250,000 to 499,999 people to be in need of humanitarian food assistance at the height of the lean season period around February/March, with increased populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in southern, southwestern, and some eastern areas. Despite available seasonal agricultural labor, household income is expected to remain below average due to high competition, low wage rates, and reduced capacity for middle and better-off households to hire and pay wages.
The 2024/25 season is expected to be average, including average rainfall, area planted, crop development, and harvest. The start of the main harvest in April 2025 is expected to drive significant improvements in food consumption.
