Attachments
Key Messages
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through at least January 2025 in south and southwestern Lesotho (Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Maseru, and Quthing districts) due to early exhaustion of harvested food stocks for poor households and below-average purchasing capacity. Labor opportunities are increasingly available for land preparation in some areas, but wage rates and in-kind payments remain below average as better-off households have lower capacity to pay and have little or no food stocks for in-kind payments. Consequently, an increasing number of people will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January 2025. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present across the rest of Lesotho as other households meet their food needs from previously harvested food stocks supplemented by market purchases.
- Maize meal prices continue to increase slightly month-on-month, remaining above average by 10 to 20 percent, due to higher demand and import prices from South Africa. Other alternative staple foods, such as rice and sorghum meal, recorded marginal month-on-month price increases, with July prices about 15 to 20 percent higher than last year for some markets. According to the IMF, domestic and regional food markets will shape whether Lesotho’s headline inflation may ease, but regional maize prices are trending up gradually.
- Following recent forecasts, the October 2024 to March 2025 rainfall season is expected to be average and start on time. Consequently, although average rainfall is expected to gradually increase soil moisture from its currently low levels, soil moisture is expected to remain below average. The forecasted above-average temperatures that are expected through March 2025 may negatively affect crop establishment in case of limited ground moisture. Lesotho received rainfall in the third week of September, but snow in some areas such as Quthing is also negatively impacting livestock. The recent precipitation is expected to improve soil moisture and enhance land preparation activities, recharge streams, rivers, dams, and pastures for livestock. Agricultural labor opportunities and incomes are expected to improve as the rainfall season progresses, although incomes are likely to remain below average, impacting purchasing capacity. More cash transfers and agricultural input subsidies may be possible due to the government’s improved budget, but require better targeting to the poorest households, according to the IMF’s September consultation.