Attachments
Overview
The projected analysis period in Lesotho aligns with the lean season starting from October to March 2025. The projection analysis conducted in November 2024 shows an improved food security situation compared to the May 2024 assessment and analysis. This improvement is largely due to ongoing humanitarian assistance—such as cash and food transfers—from the government of Lesotho, humanitarian organizations, and UN agencies, which have significantly helped reduce food gaps. During the projected period (January-March 2025), approximately 335,000 people (22 percent of the rural population) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), compared to 403,000 people in the May 2024 analysis for the same period. Overall, with this new analysis, all ten districts remain classified under IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
During this period, key hazards anticipated include heavy rainfall, following a normal to above-normal rainfall forecast across all districts, along with episodes of high temperatures. Additional challenges include declining income sources, such as lower livestock sales due to increased market competition and some restrictions on livestock movement across the border to the Republic of South Africa (RSA), where other areas have market opportunities. Persistent high food and non-food prices, such as fuel and electricity, have negatively affected already depleted purchasing power, alongside reduced humanitarian assistance as the season progresses.
At the beginning of the projected period, (October to December 2024) coverage from cash and food transfer was high enough to offset the existing food gaps. For instance, in Berea, the humanitarian assistance has reached 29 percent of the population, providing support that covers approximately 67 percent of the caloric needs while in ButhaButhe and Leribe 72 percent and 65 percent respectively of the caloric needs were covered and in Qacha’s Nek humanitarian assistance covered 27 percent of the population which was able to meet 83 percent of their monthly energy requirements.
In summary, humanitarian assistance played a vital role in reducing food gaps during the review period. However, food and non-food prices remain very high, weakening the purchasing power of poorer households as their income levels have shrunk compared to the previous year. Food access also remains a minor limiting factor for most districts in the current analysis period. These factors are likely to undermine food access while food availability is expected to remain stable since markets in Lesotho are consistently functional and wellsupplied through local, regional, and international sources.