Attachments
Conflict drives mass displacement and high food prices, resulting in Crisis
Key Messages
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in South Lebanon, El Nabatieh, Baalbak-El Hermel, Akkar, and North Lebanon governorates through at least May 2025. In the south, intensifying conflict continues to cause civilian casualties, population displacement, and severe disruptions to livelihoods. Meanwhile, in North Lebanon, Akkar, and Baalbek-El Hermel, many Syrian and Palestinian refugees as well as Lebanese host households are unable to cope with high food prices amid reductions in both income and humanitarian assistance.
- FEWS NET assesses the population in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance to be 2.0-2.5 million people, with needs expected to increase through May as the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) grows. The populations of highest concern include poor rural agricultural communities, Syrian and Palestinian refugees, IDPs, and those located in areas facing ongoing hostilities.
- The Israel Defense Force’s (IDF) aerial bombing campaign has caused widespread destruction to civilian infrastructure (such as farmland, buildings, and residential blocks) across southern and eastern Lebanon, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. Since October 2023, more than 2,500 Lebanese have been killed and approximately 835,000 people have been displaced. According to IOM, South Lebanon and El Nabatieh have the highest rates of outmigration, while Mount Lebanon and Akkar are hosting the highest number of IDPs.
- Since the escalation of hostilities in September 2024, approximately 440,000 people have crossed into Syria (around 70 percent Syrian refugees). However, Lebanon closed its two eastern border crossings with Syria on October 25 following an Israeli strike on the Syrian side of the Al-Qaa border crossing. The border closure is now hindering population movement and commercial trade. Given that many Lebanese traders typically rely on informal cross-border trade and market activities, this is affecting household income and the prices of essential goods among communities located along the eastern border.
Food security context
Since the 2006 Lebanon War, the conflict between Lebanon and Israel has been marked by periodic escalations. The situation has intensified in recent years, with significant cross-border skirmishes and major confrontations. In October 2023, conflicts within the broader Middle East region led to heightened tensions and hostilities between Lebanon – specifically Hezbollah – and Israel. In September 2024, Israel launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon coordinated with an increase in aerial attacks (Figure 1), resulting in widespread destruction and displacement.