Attachments
Key Messages
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A ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, effective as of late November, is expected to partially alleviate the scale of acute food insecurity within Lebanon by facilitating a relative decline in the population in need of humanitarian food assistance. However, the cumulative impacts of the year-long conflict – especially the escalation observed in September and October – will still result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) area-level outcomes across much of the country through at least May. This projection is roughly in line with the de-escalation scenario identified in FEWS NET’s October 2024 Remote Monitoring Report, but there remains uncertainty regarding the extent to which the ceasefire will be honored and the longer-term durability of conflict resolution. The degree of improvement in acute food insecurity outcomes ultimately depends on the timing of a more significant de-escalation in hostilities, and a return to normal is unlikely to occur in the near-to-medium term.
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On November 27, a ceasefire agreement went into effect, during which both Hezbollah and Israel have 60 days to withdraw from the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River. In the hours prior to the implementation of the ceasefire, high-intensity airstrikes were carried out across Lebanon, targeting border crossing points and areas of central and southern Beirut. Subsequently, in the first few days alone, there have been multiple reported ceasefire violations, including the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) continuation of air strikes such as those in Southern Beirut on November 28, the Bekaa Valley on November 29, and areas of southern Lebanon on November 30. Despite the ceasefire violations, the resumption of conflict at full-scale intensity is considered unlikely during the 60-day window for the withdrawal of both forces, which ends on January 25. After January 25, however, the most likely scenario is that Israel will assess the Lebanese military is not yet capable of controlling the buffer zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River and will continue to occupy the zone to deter the reconstitution of Hezbollah.
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) area-level outcomes are expected to persist in the South, El Nabatieh, Baalbak-El Hermel, Akkar, and North Lebanon governorates given the level of infrastructure destruction to date and the level of investment required to rehabilitate key economic sectors. In the most heavily conflict-affected areas of the south and Baalbak-El Hermel, the scale of population displacement, civilian casualties, and damage to livelihood activities – especially in the agricultural sector, such as the direct destruction of cropland and irrigation infrastructure – will continue to impede access to food and income. In the north, which hosts high numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and Syrian and Palestinian refugees, both displaced and host households will continue to face difficulty coping with high food prices and reductions in both income and humanitarian food assistance. In Beirut, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes with populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will most likely persist. However, the alleviation of hostilities is expected to facilitate a relative decline in the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) overall, especially in Akkar and North Lebanon, as households return to their places of origin and market functionality gradually rebounds.
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According to an IOM displacement update as of November 30, 578,641 IDPs have reportedly begun to return to their areas of origin, primarily to the South and Bekaa governorates as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut. 613 out of 1,015 shelters have already closed, with 163,795 IDPs reportedly having left these collective shelters. Additionally, there are anecdotal reports that Lebanese nationals are returning following the ceasefire, but official return rates are not yet available. Prior to the ceasefire, approximately 610,000 people (roughly 60 percent Syrian and 40 percent Lebanese) had crossed the border into Syria since September 23 to escape the escalating conflict. Significant obstacles will likely impede the return of a portion of the remaining estimated 325,000 IDPs [1] and those who fled to Syria, including continued airstrikes, the destruction of residential, commercial, and agricultural properties, limited access to basic services, and movement restrictions. Notably, Israel has imposed a ban prohibiting civilians from entering more than 60 locations along the Blue Line until further notice.
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According to the World Food Programme, which is the largest implementer of food assistance in Lebanon, a total of approximately 497,900 unique beneficiaries received food assistance between September 23 and November 28 with cash and/or food. In November, specifically, Lebanon’s Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) and other partners reported reaching all collective shelters across the country, delivering ready-to-eat kits containing enough food for up to five days to more than 256,000 beneficiaries; food parcels containing food supplies for up to one month to more than 258,000 beneficiaries; and bread packs to over 424,000 beneficiaries (some beneficiaries likely received more than one type of assistance). Due to constraints in humanitarian access to hard-to-reach areas along the southern border of Lebanon and difficulties locating those who have been displaced outside of collective shelters, many people who remain in their houses in southern Lebanon or are sheltering with family and friends elsewhere have not received food assistance.
[1] According to IOM data as of November 24, the total IDP population peaked at 899,725 prior to the ceasefire announcement. Given the recorded return of over 575,000 IDPs as of November 30, it is estimated that approximately 325,000 IDPs are currently living in shelters, with host households, or in public areas.