Lebanon Key Message Update: Limited access to cash income in USD worsening food security of the poor, July 2024

Key Messages

• In Lebanon, the persisting economic crisis and ongoing cross-border fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the south are driving widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across the country, with worst-affected governorates likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In the North governorate and across the northeast (which host large refugee populations), refugee and host populations are competing for increasingly limited income-earning opportunities amid cuts to humanitarian food assistance (HFA). Neither Palestinian nor Syrian refugees have residence-based rights to work, and many poor Lebanese and refugee households have fallen further into poverty. In southern Lebanon, conflict is driving protracted population displacement and disrupting livelihoods, including crop production. Across the country, many households have been forced to cut essential non-food expenditures, such as healthcare, to meet food needs; the poorest households are employing severe coping strategies such as sending children to work or reducing food consumption among adults.
• Cross-border attacks intensified in southern Lebanon in early June, with Hezbollah launching larger rockets at IDF bases and targeting cities that were not evacuated. In addition, on July 30, Israel launched an airstrike killing a Hezbollah commander in the southern outskirts of Beirut shortly before assassinating the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Recent events do not change FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario reported in June 2024. FEWS NET continues to anticipate that IDF strikes against southern Lebanon will likely persist while the conflict in Gaza continues, and even potentially following a cessation of hostilities in Gaza. In addition, the significant displacement resulting from cross-border fire is likely to continue through January 2025. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the regional conflict – including in Lebanon – will develop in the coming weeks and months, and FEWS NET will continue monitoring the situation.
• As of mid-July, cross-border attacks have displaced approximately 100,000 people in the south, over 60 percent of whom remain in safer districts of the South and El-Nabatieh governorates. Others have relocated to Beirut and Mount Lebanon and Baalbak-El Hermel governorates, and even areas as far as Bekaa, Akkar, and North governorates. Most of these IDPs live with host families. As of July 9, an estimated 97 percent of IDP households originated from three districts: Bint Jbeil (73 percent), Marjayyoun, and Tyre. Meanwhile, around 60,000 civilians are still living in areas along active frontlines of southern Lebanon. As of July 24, 1,953 casualties have been recorded since the Israeli attacks began in October 2023; these include 481 fatalities (107 of which were civilian fatalities), according to the Ministry of Public Health and OHCHR. There has been an uptick in civilian fatalities by around 27 percent in the four-month period from March to July, compared to the October to February period.
• Recent conflict escalation has impacted agriculture in the South and El-Nabatieh governorates, as Israeli airstrikes and incendiary bombs have increasingly targeted farmland and residential areas since May. According to Lebanon’s Council of the South, 1,700 hectares of farmland have been burned due to Israeli shelling. On July 8, a single airstrike targeting a livestock farm in Jabal Tora resulted in the death of over 700 goats. In addition, severe damage to electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as roads, has disrupted market access and functionality, most notably along the conflict frontlines. Damage to at least 13 water infrastructure systems has impacted the water supply for nearly 200,000 residents in southern Lebanon.
• Among poor Lebanese nationals and refugees, some households are reliant on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs, including food and shelter. WFP’s cash assistance program for Syrian refugees targeted only 626,500 beneficiaries in May, a significantly lower number than in November 2023. Additionally, cuts to HFA and limited social protection coverage are impacting host populations in northern Lebanon. According to a WFP report, the National Poverty Targeting Program (NPTP) is providing Lebanese beneficiary households with 20 USD only every other month, compared to the previous montly frequency. Despite efforts by WFP and the government to target the most vulnerable, and the government’s transition from a generalized wheat subsidy to more targeted assistance, the share of poor Lebanese nationals remains high. Though the rapid expansion of a dollarized cash-based economy has resulted in more Lebanese earning wages in dollars, those without access to dollars (including IDPs and poor households engaged in casual labor) are exposed to increasing inflation. Additionally, even those who earn wages in dollars are being impacted by rising retail prices of food and non-food essentials priced in dollars, though to a lesser extent.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Lebanon Key Message Update July 2024: Limited access to cash income in USD worsening food security of the poor, 2024.