Lebanon: Flash Update #63 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon, as of 13 March 2025

HIGHLIGHTS

• Military activity continues to threaten access to humanitarian assistance and protection, with one of the highest number of airstrikes reported on 7 March since the cessation of hostilities agreement.
• 92,825 remain displaced outside their cadaster of origin, while 957,604 people returned to their cadaster of origin (source: IOM)
• A recent escalation of violence in Syria triggered an additional 10,000 new arrivals into the North and Akkar Governorates.
• The economic cost of the conflict for Lebanon is $14 billion, with total reconstruction and recovery costs estimated at $11 billion. Housing suffers the greatest damage cost (source: World Bank)

SITUATION OVERVIEW

The situation in Lebanon remains tenuous as continued military operations threaten the safety and protection of civilians, and further drive humanitarian need, especially as widespread destruction impedes access to safe housing, basic services, and public infrastructure. The number of airstrikes has increased from the last reporting period, with 15 locations targeted with air and drone strikes in South, Nabatieh, and Bekaa governorates between 7 and 13 March (compared to 5 locations targeted between 28 February to 6 March).

On 7 March, the Israeli army conducted at least 20 airstrikes within half an hour in southern Lebanon, marking one of the highest number of strikes in a single day since the cessation of hostilities agreement in November 2024. On 8 March, an Israeli strike on Khirbet Selem, Bint Jbeil district, killed one civilian and wounded another, according to the Ministry of Health. Artillery shelling occurred throughout the South, with a higher intensity, particularly in Kfar Kila where one LAF soldier was killed and two injured on 9 March, according to the Ministry of Health. The Israeli Army is reportedly maintaining its presence over approximately 13 square kilometers in the South, generating uncertainty about the safety of returning to areas within or near this zone.

This has hindered the return of civilian populations and emphasized the insecurity for those living in close proximity. Amidst ongoing military activity in Lebanon, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to launch negotiations on outstanding issues related to the cessation of hostilities agreement, particularly on the five points the Israeli Army is still present in South Lebanon, and disputed points along the Blue Line. As of 12 March, 92,825 (51 per cent women and 49 per cent men) remain displaced outside their cadaster of origin, while 957,604 people were back in their cadaster of origin, according to IOM’s Mobility Snapshot (Round 80). Both figures reflect a decrease in the number of those displaced outside their cadaster of origin (3 per cent decrease) and an increase in the number of people who have returned; however, these figures are expected to remain fluid as households face destroyed homes and significant challenges in accessing essential services and assistance in heavily conflict-affected areas. Meanwhile, 1,761 of the displaced remain in 21 collective sites.

As of 5 March, the government’s Disaster Risk Management reported approximately 90,540 arrivals from Syria in Baalbek Governorate, North Bekaa, including 32,948 in 193 informal collective shelters, and 57,600 in host communities, including 20,000 Lebanese returnees (UNHCR). The escalation of hostilities in Syria, particularly coastal governorates of Tartous, Lattakia, Homs and Hama, since 6 March has resulted in 10,828 new arrivals (2,668 families including 62 Lebanese families) from Syria into Northern Lebanon, primarily Akkar Governorate. This number reflects the most recent reporting as of 12 March, however arrivals are continuing and likely to rise (UNHCR).

According to the most recent Protection Monitoring Survey conducted by UNHCR in partnership with INTERSOS, Syrian refugees displaced by the escalation of the conflict in September through November faced limited housing options, precarious living conditions and homelessness resulting from steep increases in rental fees and restrictions on access to emergency shelters. 35 per cent of Syrians remained displaced after the cessation of hostilities, with challenges in returning to their pre-conflict place of residence due to destruction of homes, movement restrictions imposed by municipalities, financial constraints, and occupation of their homes by other people.

Legal measures introduced in the last quarter of 2024 affected the legal status, freedom of movement, and overall protection environment for Syrian refugees. The use of negative coping mechanisms increased as prices of essential goods spiked and income generating opportunities decreased, and protection risks heightened, including increases in child labor from job loss and limited education opportunities. Reconstruction and recovery needs in Lebanon are estimated at $11 billion following the conflict, according to the 2025 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment by the World Bank.

This assessment captures damage, losses and needs in ten sectors across the country covering 8 October 2023 to 20 December 2024. The economic cost of the conflict for Lebanon is $14 billion with damage to physical infrastructure estimated to be at $6.8 billion and economic losses from reduced productivity, lost revenues and operating costs approximately $7.2 billion. Housing damage was the greatest damage cost amongst the ten sectors at $4.6 billion (or 67 per cent of the total) followed by the infrastructure sectors (Energy, Municipal and Public Services, Transport, and Water, Wastewater and Irrigation) with a combined 10 per cent of the total. In terms of losses, the Commerce, Industry, and Tourism sector has been the hardest hit, with estimated losses reaching $3.4 billion (48 per cent of the total). These losses stem from the conflict's widespread disruption of commercial activity across the national economy, as well as a sharp decline in inbound tourism and domestic travel.