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Lebanon: Flash Update #56 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon, as of 23 January 2025

Attachments

HIGHLIGHTS

  • As the end of the 60 days cessation of hostilities nears on 26 January, insecurity continues to impact civilians, hinder humanitarian access and complicate return and recovery.
  • 874,949 people displaced within Lebanon reported back in their cadaster of origin as of 23 January while 112,076 people remain displaced outside their cadaster of origin as of 23 January (IOM).
  • 1.65 million people in Lebanon face IPC phase 3+ conditions, a 31% increase from the previous assessment; the number of people grappling with emergency levels (IPC phase 4) has doubled, to 201,000.
  • UN Secretary-General visits Lebanon, emphasizing the conflict’s human impacts and the UN commitment to intensify efforts for recovery and reconstruction.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Nearing the end of the 60-day cessation of hostilities on 26 January 2025, military activities continued to be reported in parts of Lebanon, particularly in areas of southern Lebanon to which the Israeli Army reiterated its restrictions on civilian presence. This continues to complicate population returns, hindering access to humanitarian assistance and recovery efforts, and undermines the protection of civilians. While Israeli forces reportedly withdrew from certain villages during the reporting period, military operations, including artillery attacks and airstrikes, as well as demolitions and detonations of houses and civilian infrastructure in border villages and detentions of farmers, continue, reportedly resulting in civilian casualties. To date, at least 30 civilian casualties since the start of the cessation of hostilities on 27 November 2024 have been recorded by OHCHR. The Israeli Army maintained its restrictions on access to more than 70 villages in southern Lebanon.

Humanitarian partners are preparing for the post-cessation of hostilities period, although extensive damage to homes and critical infrastructure, including roads, water, and electricity networks, is expected to delay the return of displaced populations to border villages. While some temporary returns to such areas have been recorded, these are largely attributed to individual households assessing and protecting private property. Humanitarian partners are working closely with local and national authorities to coordinate response and early recovery planning, emphasizing the need for areas to be cleared of rubble, unexploded ordnance, and potential chemical contamination. The road to recovery and reconstruction remains long and sustained efforts and funding will be needed to address both immediate humanitarian needs and longer-term reconstruction challenges.

Visiting Lebanon from 16-18 January 2025 during which he met with the country’s political leadership and United Nations entities and staff, including UNIFIL in South Lebanon, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that he had seen first-hand the dramatic human impact and destruction caused by the conflict…[adding that] after one of [its] most difficult years in generations, Lebanon is on the cusp of a more hopeful future…The rebuilding needs are great. But they are not insurmountable… Working handin-hand with Lebanese authorities and partners, the United Nations will intensify our support for recovery and reconstruction across Lebanon. The UN Secretary-General called on all parties to ensure that commitments under the cessation of hostilities were met and Security Council Resolution 1701 implemented, as the framework for lasting peace. He also emphasized the need for respect for international humanitarian law and emphasized the obligation of all parties to ensure the safety of UN personnel.

As of 23 January 2025, a total of 112,076 people remain displaced within Lebanon according to IOM’s Mobility Snapshot (Round 73). Some 89 per cent of those remaining displaced come from just five districts, with 40 per cent displaced from Bint Jbeil district, 22 per cent from Sour, 11 per cent from El Nabatieh, 10 per cent from Marjaayoun and 6 per cent from Baabda (primarily Beirut Southern Suburbs).

Of those remaining displaced, 3,669 are residing in 39 collective sites. Meanwhile, 874,949 people have begun returning to their communities, approximately 90 per cent of the total displaced since 8 October 2023. Given the complexity and fluidity of population movements in the country, these observed returns should not be considered permanent but seen as a snapshot in time, as many people remain on the move.

Despite the returns, the situation of conflict-affected people remains challenging as many face severe obstacles, including extensive damage to infrastructure, housing, and essential services. A UNDP rapid impact assessment, conducted with Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Unit at the governorate level across 135 affected areas, revealed that widespread displacement has strained host communities and resources. Extensive damage to infrastructure – roads, water, electricity, schools, health centers, and municipal buildings – has worsened the crisis. The assessment also highlighted significant economic losses in businesses, agriculture, and livelihoods, contributing to rising unemployment. Local authorities are facing difficulties in delivering essential services, such as healthcare, education, and waste management, and have identified urgent needs for shelter, food, and healthcare, particularly for vulnerable groups.

Food insecurity has deepened in Lebanon as a result of the conflict, according to the Integrated Phase Classification report released by Lebanon’s Ministry of Agriculture, FAO, and WFP, and recovery is expected to be slow due to the prolonged impact on agriculture and the broader economy. Nearly one third of Lebanon's population now faces crisis or emergency food insecurity conditions – or 1.65 million people, a more than 30 per cent increase in comparison to 1.26 million people before the escalation.

Some 201,000 people are grappling with emergency levels (IPC phase 4), twice the number as previously. The worsening situation is driven by the compounded effects of the conflict and mass displacement on key economic sectors. Lebanon’s refugee populations are particularly at risk, the report noted, with Baalbek-El Hermel governorate classified as experiencing emergency conditions. Baalbek district was classified in Phase 4 for the first time in an IPC analysis in Lebanon for both Lebanese residents and Syrian refugees, due to the compounding factors of conflict and displacement, damages to infrastructure, deteriorating market access and disrupted supply routes, as well as chronic vulnerabilities already affecting the area. The report projects that food insecurity is expected to persist over the next three months, with no short-term return to pre-crisis conditions.

Meanwhile, UNHCR reports that a steady rate of crossings (1,000-1,500) at the Masnaa border crossing between Syria to Lebanon daily. As of 15 January, the Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management (DRM)
Unit reports approximately 86,000 arrivals from Syria in Baalbek Governorate, including 20,000 Lebanese returnees. Among the arrivals, some 34,000 people, mostly Syrians, are living in 210 informal collective shelters, and another 52,100 are living in the community. During his 23 visit to Lebanon, UNHCR High Commissioner Filippo Grandi highlighted the critical situation and needs of both displaced Lebanese and Syrian refugees, emphasizing the importance of sustained international support, improved security, and cooperation to ensure sustainable returns and address urgent humanitarian and reconstruction challenges.

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