Attachments
Overview
The following overview has been generated using the information available up to April 7, 2026. It provides a synthesized summary and key insights into the crisis based on the most recent data accessible at that time.
Summary
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel began in October 2023 following the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war and escalated significantly in September 2024 as Israeli military operations intensified across southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Although a ceasefire agreement came into effect on 27 November 2024, implementation has remained fragile and incomplete. Since the ceasefire, UNIFIL has recorded more than 10,000 air and ground violations, with at least 370 people killed and 973 injured attributed to these breaches. Israeli forces continue to occupy five positions inside Lebanese territory and maintain strikes, demolitions, and reconnaissance operations across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, contributing to persistent insecurity and hindering returns.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israeli forces were expected to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days, while Hezbollah was required to pull its fighters and heavy weapons north of the Litani River, with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL assuming responsibility for security in the buffer zone. The LAF completed the first phase of its deployment south of the Litani in January 2026 and has since advanced into a second phase that authorities estimate will require at least four additional months. However, Hezbollah has rejected disarmament north of the Litani, and Israel has warned it may escalate if disarmament is not achieved, maintaining a high risk of renewed large-scale operations.
Over the 14-month conflict period, more than 4,000 people have been killed and nearly one million were displaced at the peak of hostilities, while infrastructure damage is estimated at approximately USD 14 billion. More than 64,000 people remain internally displaced one year after the ceasefire, mostly in the south, with other estimates suggesting that up to 100,000 people are still unable to return due to ongoing security constraints and the continued Israeli military presence. The humanitarian situation is further compounded by the presence of approximately 1.3 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon according to Ministry of Interior figures. At the same time, large-scale voluntary returns to Syria are underway: since 8 December 2024, some 437,586 Syrians have departed from or via Lebanon, and UNHCR has inactivated 379,103 cases since January 2025 due to confirmed or presumed return.
Regional dynamics have further destabilized the situation. Following the US–Iran strikes that began on 28 February 2026, tensions sharply increased across the region, including along the Lebanon–Israel front. Hezbollah engaged in renewed cross-border rocket fire, prompting intensified Israeli retaliatory strikes across southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut. These developments unfolded against an already fragile ceasefire framework, heightening domestic political tensions within Lebanon and reinforcing the risk of broader escalation.
International pressure and diplomatic engagement have intensified in response to these risks. The United States has provided more than USD 237 million in security assistance, including USD 192.7 million to the LAF and USD 45 million to the Internal Security Forces, with recent legislation linking continued aid to measurable progress on disarmament and requiring a formal report by 30 June 2026. A tripartite Lebanon–Israel–US mechanism is holding meetings in Naqoura, chaired on the Lebanese side by Ambassador Simon Karem, aimed at monitoring ceasefire implementation and reducing tensions. France and Lebanon are co-hosting an international conference in Paris on 5 March 2026 to mobilize financial, military, and technical support for the LAF, while Egypt has proposed freezing Hezbollah’s weapons within a demilitarized zone extending north to the Awali River as a potential diplomatic off-ramp. Despite these efforts, the convergence of incomplete ceasefire implementation, unresolved disarmament, continued violations, and regional confrontation sustains a high risk of renewed large-scale hostilities in 2026.