SECTOR OUTCOMES
OUTCOME 1:
Strengthen municipalities, national and local institutions’ ability to alleviate resource pressure, reduce resentment, and build peace
INDICATORS - Percentage of people reporting positive impact of municipalities on their lives - Percentage of people reporting competition for services and utilities as source of tension - Percentage of people who feel that they can voice concern with authorities in case of dissatisfaction
OUTCOME 2:
Strengthen municipal and local community capacity to foster dialogue and address sources of tensions and conflicts
INDICATORS
- Percentage of people able to identify conflict resolution mechanisms/actors in their community they would turn to - Percentage of people identifying factors that could improve inter-community relationships - Percentage of people displaying propensity for violence
OUTCOME 3:
Enhance the LCRP’s capacities on tensions monitoring and conflict sensitivity
INDICATORS
- Percentage of partners reporting that they have their own mechanisms to ensure conflict sensitivity - Number of LCRP sectors taking steps to ensure conflict sensitivity in their strategy and delivery of work plans
1. SITUATION ANALYSIS
The multiple crises in Lebanon are continuing to drive tensions which are exacerbated by the loss of jobs and rising poverty as well as by the deterioration of services, including municipal services such as solid waste management, community security and wastewater. In this context, communal relations are deteriorating at all levels, increasingly leading to incidents and escalations.
The relations between displaced Syrians and host community members remain strained, driven by different factors, including cultural differences, but mainly driven by economic factors. Through the UNDP/ARK Regular Perception Survey, Wave XIV, the ranking of tension factors has remained approximately constant over recent waves. In August 2022, 50 per cent of those surveyed named ‘competition for lower-skilled jobs’ as the main tension driver. Over all waves of the survey, since 2017, ‘competition for lower skilled jobs’ has remained the mostfrequently cited source of inter-communal tensions, as reported by both Lebanese and Syrians. Other frequently cited tension factors include ‘competition for services and utilities’ (30%), ‘competition for the establishment of businesses’ (18%), ‘the political situation regionally and nationally’ (17%), and ‘cultural differences’ (9%). Overall, some 37 per cent of respondents reported in 2022 negative inter-communal relations, as compared to 21 per cent in July 2018. Relations are most fragile in Beqaa, Akkar and the South.[1] Negative sentiments continue to manifest themselves on social media with inflammatory messages, accusing and blaming displaced Syrians for being the main cause behind community insecurity incidents and the economic crisis, negatively affecting inter-communal relations. These negative sentiments are also impacting the protection space. 2022 witnessed a rise in restrictive measures by municipalities, particularly curfews[2] and other movement restrictions,[3] economically imposed restrictive measures, self-movements restrictions – particularly at informal settlements – collective evictions,[4] etc. Restrictive measures grew alongside these rising social tensions. The number of displaced Syrians who reported living under restrictive measures grew by 29 per cent, when compared to quarter 2 of the previous year, in Beirut and Mount Lebanon and 167 per cent in the South and Nabatiyeh. UNHCR’s monitoring shows a sharp increase in movement restrictions recorded in quarter 3: with 61 new measures recorded compared to 22 in the second quarter and 8 during the first.
Correspondingly, the majority of these new movement restrictions were implemented in the South and Nabatiyeh (61%), as well as in Beirut and Mount Lebanon (18%). Over half (56%) of the movement restrictions implemented in quarter 3 were temporary measures surrounding Ashura celebrations.
While the remainder measures were mostly introduced in response to security incidents committed by any population groups occurring in the community.[5] Simultaneously, over the last three years, intra-Lebanese relations, which were previously very positive, have been deteriorating. In 2018, 4 per cent of Lebanese described the quality of relations as negative relations between different Lebanese groups. As of August 2022, 39 per cent of respondents now report negative relations. Accordingly, when comparing data from the UNDP/ARK Regular Perception Survey, Wave XIV, the quality of relations between Lebanese groups are now at similarly negative levels as the quality of Syrian - Lebanese relations tension levels and are increasingly resulting in various incidents.
For intra-Lebanese tensions, the trajectory and drivers are often more political in nature. In July 2022, 58 per cent of the Lebanese cited political differences as the main tension driver compared to 33 per cent in July 2019. The second most reported driver of intra-Lebanese tensions is differences in socio-economic status, where 38 per cent cited ‘inflation or lack of access to cash’ as tension driver in Wave XIV (August 2022). The deteriorating intraLebanese relations are mirrored in social media with polarised rhetoric and increasing tensions.
The sustained deterioration in the economy, high levels of political instability, persistent concerns about access to food, clean water, electricity, and medical care as well as the strained capacity of security institutions to respond, coupled with increased crime rates, have also contributed to worsening perceptions of physical safety and security, nationwide. Despite some minor improvements in perceptions of safety and security survey, 53 per cent Lebanese and 64 per cent of displaced Syrians report feeling unsafe in their area or neighbourhood at night.
Prior to the parliamentary elections in 2022, 58 per cent of Lebanese were concerned about violence related to elections. However, no major incidents materialised. In August 2022, 40 per cent of the population believed that violence is sometimes necessary when interests are being threatened and 75 per cent worried about the threat of crime sometimes, often or all the time.
These factors will remain threats to Lebanon’s stability in 2023, where inter and intra-communal tensions are likely to persist and will potentially escalate.
In terms of the gender aspect, as per consultations with partners during the LCRP Inter-Agency situation analysis workshops in October 2022, men commonly respond to perceived or real inter-communal tensions by restricting women’s movement and access to public space. Such patterns have been observed between displaced Syrians and the Lebanese host communities. As a result of such tensions, women are less likely to work and to participate in the workforce and in public life, fostering dependency on men and/or the humanitarian system. At the same time, a little under half of households reported that women and girls feel very unsafe walking alone at night.
Markets (58%) and streets/neighbourhoods (66%) are the places most avoided by women and girls due to lack of safety in Lebanon. At least one in ten Lebanese and Syrian households report that female household members avoid certain areas because they are unsafe. For Palestine refugees in Lebanon, this rises to 1 in 3 households.
Sixteen per cent of households felt that the school the children attend is unsafe, due mainly to discrimination, including verbal harassment against students. This was highest in the Akkar governorate at 29 per cent.
On the situation of municipalities in 2022, many are now unable to deliver basic services under their mandates and are at risk of collapse due to limited funds. Requests to LCRP partners for support have increased and are often centred around operation and management mostly e.g. fuel provision and/or solar energy provision to operate services, support in maintenance of vehicles, and other direct support (cash etc.), have progressively increased. The extent of the needs is now impacting the ability of municipalities to engage in partners’ projects, hence affecting the operational environment for LCRP partners that are increasingly under pressure to support municipalities. Lebanese and Syrians alike remain extremely concerned about access to essential goods and services, such as food, fuel, water, medicine, and medical care. The electricity crisis has had a lasting impact on quality of life and other areas of need, such as access to safe drinking water. Moreover, public institutions, including social development centres, Governorate offices, etc. are facing challenges in operation and management and are at risk of being paralysed if the economic situation continues. Key challenges for municipalities include the delayed independent Municipal Fund that, if disbursed, will not be enough due to depreciation of LBP currency against the USD, reduced tax collection and its depreciated value, weak infrastructure and lack of personnel and capacity, including municipal police. This is leading to gaps in security control and in the ability to cover maintenance and operational costs, severely affecting services delivery, particularly solid waste management,[6] with an increase of irregular dumping, accumulation and burning of waste in the streets, issues with access to water[7] and a shortage of wastewater discharge and treatment with spillover effects.
This is leading to further pressure on public and natural health and environmental hazards, leading to increased tensions, issues with some organisations’ access to certain areas and shrinking the protection space.
Women’s participation in local and national governance and decision-making structures as well as leadership and mediation and peace building mechanisms, remains low. Women are under-represented in the security forces, including municipal police, a shortage exacerbated by the non-employment governmental policy. Only 5 per cent of women are represented in the Lebanese Armed Forces (UNSC July 2022).[8] In addition, the country has witnessed a series of onward movements, irregular immigration vessels attempting to escape the deteriorating economic circumstances by sea.