Attachments
Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon after the 26 January deadline has once again raised concerns over further confrontation along the border. During the first 60 days of the ceasefire that began on 27 November, cross-border violence significantly decreased, with the agreement largely holding despite over 330 shelling and aerial strike incidents carried out by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). During this period, Israeli ground troops significantly intensified clearing and razing operations in southern Lebanon. ACLED records over 260 property destruction events during this period — more than seven times the number for the two months prior. Operating in nearly 50 distinct locations, the IDF demolished residential structures, roads, and other civilian infrastructure, asserting that these actions were part of efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s military sites and weapons caches. Questions now remain about what prevented the IDF from completing its clearing operations in southern Lebanon before the agreed-upon deadline.
Israeli ground forces had completed operations in most of the western sector of southern Lebanon by 26 January, with clearance activities still reported in and around 14 villages, mainly in the eastern sector, in the three days leading up to the ceasefire deadline (see map below). Yet, Israeli officials maintain that the IDF needs to continue operating in the south because the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has not consolidated sufficient control over the south to effectively dismantle Hezbollah’s warehouses and infrastructure. The LAF, however, stresses that it is ready to deploy to the remaining areas in the south but can only do so once IDF forces have withdrawn from the region.3 Indeed, by the ceasefire deadline, the LAF had deployed forces to 35 locations following the IDF’s withdrawal. Amid reports that the Israeli government is seeking approval from the Trump administration to maintain five outposts in southern Lebanon, it appears that Israel may retain a limited presence in the area for the foreseeable future, ostensibly as a buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah’s return.