Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Delayed onset of rains constrains planting of 2026 winter cereals
- Wheat production estimated below average in 2025 largely due to dry weather conditions
- Wheat import requirements forecast in 2025/26 at above-average level
- Food insecurity persists in 2026 among vulnerable population, amid high food prices and constrained humanitarian assistance
Delayed onset of rains constrains planting of 2026 winter cereals
Planting of the 2026 winter cereal crop was delayed as seasonal rains started in mid-December 2025, with a delay of about six weeks. The area planted is forecast to be below average due to the delayed onset of seasonal rains as cereal crops are mostly rainfed. Although rains improved last January, reducing soil moisture deficits and supporting crop establishment, geospatial data indicates that vegetation conditions are still below average. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of above-average temperatures between February and April, likely constraining yield prospects.
Wheat production estimated below average in 2025 largely due to dry weather conditions
Cereal production in 2025 is estimated at a record low level of 90 000 tonnes, about 50 percent below the five-year average, largely due to dry weather conditions between December 2024 and February 2025. Furthermore, conflict-driven damage to agricultural infrastructure and high inputs costs, including seeds, fertilizers and fuel, constrained cereal yields.
Wheat import requirements forecast in 2025/26 at above average level
Wheat import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 680 000 tonnes, about 8 percent above the average, due to the record low 2025 wheat production.
Food insecurity persists in 2026 among vulnerable population, amid high food prices and constrained humanitarian assistance
According to the latest 2025 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report , about 874 000 people, including Lebanese residents, refugees and post-December 2024 arrivals from the Syrian Arab Republic, are estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse between November 2025 and March 2026. The prolonged conflict-related impacts to infrastructure and agriculture, displaced populations and exacerbated economic crisis, are limiting livelihoods and worsening food security conditions among both Lebanese residents and refugees.
The annual food inflation rate slowed in 2025, reaching 15 percent in December 2025, down from 37 percent in 2024 and 255 percent in 2023, largely due to the full removal of basic food subsidies, the dollarization of the Consumer price index (CPI) basket and the stability of the exchange rate. However, prices remain high, adversely affecting food access especially among the most vulnerable households.
According to latest available data, the monthly cost of Food Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) per person increased by about 7 percent year-on-year in October 2025, reaching LBP 3.64 million (USD 40.6). This increasing trend continues to undermine the purchasing power of vulnerable households and increase reliance on humanitarian food assistance. Global humanitarian funding constraints are expected to continue limiting assistance in 2026.