FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Winter cereal harvest in 2024 estimated well below averagep due to adverse weather conditions
- Cereal import requirements for 2024/25 forecast at near-average level
- Food insecurity to persist in 2025, amid economic crisis and extensive infrastructure damage due to conflict
Winter cereal harvest in 2024 estimated well below average due to adverse weather conditions
According to the findings of the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) conducted in July, 2024 winter cereal production is estimated at 120 000 tonnes, about 34 percent below the five-year average underpinned by adverse weather conditions. Despite above-average rainfall amounts from November 2023 to February 2024, which improved soil moisture and favoured early crop development, drought conditions in the spring, a heatwave in May and an outbreak of yellow rust disease, adversely affected yields of cereal crops, particularly during critical the flowering and grain filling stages.
Planting of 2025 winter cereals was delayed until December 2024 due to the intensified conflict, which restricted farmers’ field access. Below-average precipitation amounts last November and December in Baalbek-Hermel and the Bekaa Valley, coupled with a forecast pointing to drought conditions in February and March are anticipated to have an adverse impact on yields.
The protracted economic crisis is likely to continue hampering the agriculture sector in 2025. After the financial collapse in 2019, access to credit facilities became limited and farmers now need to cover their expenses using cash, mostly paying with United States dollars. Access to inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and fuel, is highly vulnerable to the exchange rate and price fluctuations, as these inputs are largely imported and potentially increase production costs.
Cereal import requirement for 2024/25 forecast at near-average level
Wheat import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 670 000 tonnes, about 4 percent above the average, reflecting the downturn in 2024 domestic production. Covering these needs will highly depend on the country’s capacity to import, specifically the availability of foreign currency. The conflict has negatively impacted the economic situation, reducing foreign currency inflows, which may slow down import pace.
The explosion at the Port of Beirut in August 2020, which destroyed government-operated grain silos with wheat storage capacity sufficient for approximately six months of national consumption, significantly weakened the country’s resilience to future supply shocks. The destruction of silos has led importers and millers to keep inventories at their facilities, which are estimated to cover only one to two months of national consumption.
Food insecurity to persist in 2025, amid economic crisis and extensive infrastructure damage due to conflict
With the escalation of the conflict in September 2024, disruptions to the local economy such as trade, tourism and agricultural production, displacement and limited humanitarian access have emerged a significant compounding factor affecting directly, or indirectly food insecurity of most Lebanese and refugees in the country.
According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), 1.65 million people are projected to face high acute food security (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) from December 2024 to March 2025. The conflict has severely damaged agricultural lands, worsened the economic downturn and displaced people while destroying productive assets, including agricultural resources. This has led to an urgent need for assistance among agricultural households, including displaced families, to restore their productive capacity or resume farming activities in less-affected areas. Furthermore, the tourism sector, a key contributor to the Gross domestic product (GDP), experienced a sharp decline, further deterring livelihoods.
While the national currency has been stabilized since 2024, retail food prices remain high following years of hyperinflation, making inflation a key driver of food insecurity. In November 2024, the annual food inflation rate was 23.2 percent, decreasing significantly from the previous year’s annual rate of 220 percent, due the unofficial adoption of United States dollar pricing system which initiated in 2023.
The monthly cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) surged by around 17 percent in December 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, reaching LBP 40.6 million (USD 449) for a family of five, with a significant negative impact on households’ purchasing power.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .