Lebanon + 3 more

2021 Compounding Misfortunes - In view of the 5th Brussels Conference on Supporting the future of Syria and the region Conference

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What is new in this update?

The study Compounding Misfortunes published by the World Bank and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in December 2020, funded by the Joint Data Centre, represented an initial investigation and analysis into the poverty impact of COVID-19 in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Iraq-Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Iraq-KRI) on host communities and refugees. The release of the Study was timed so it could inform the design of 2021 national response plans, including those under the Regional Refugee and Response Plan (3RP) umbrella.
In preparation for the 2021 Supporting the future of Syria and the Region Brussels V Conference, the Study’s projections have been updated and the underlying microsimulation models refined. Further revisions are expected later in 2021.

A key step for this Update has been for the World Food Programme (WFP) to join the collaboration, bringing with them their considerable data on and analysis of the food security impact of COVID-19. Produced jointly by the World Bank, UNHCR and WFP, this Update reflects data on WFP’s programmes that responded to COVID-19 in 2020, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis of mitigating measures.

In this Update, the poverty projections are revised in light of the latest macroeconomic estimates for 2020, as well as forecasts for 2021, in Lebanon and Iraq-KRI only.

For Jordan, further analysis and consistency checking will be conducted in 2021, in close coordination with the government.

For Lebanon, which experiences very high levels of inflation, real GDP growth per capita is estimated at -20.3 percent for 2020. This revised growth rate is reflected in the simulations and adjustments are made on the passthrough of GDP growth (and contraction) into private consumption to capture behavioural responses to rapid price increases.

For Iraq-KRI, the assumptions on the trends of the growth and poverty trajectories, as well as the recovery are revisited.

In addition, further data on mitigation strategies are modelled.