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Socio-Economic Context and Policy Response
The Kyrgyz Republic continues to demonstrate strong economic growth. In January 2026, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 9 percent compared to January 2025, reaching KGS 126 billion (USD 1.4 billion) (National Statistics Committee). This growth was driven by a 12 percent increase in goods production, a 9 percent expansion in the services sector and a 5 percent increase from net taxes on products.
In January 2026, overall inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic remained high at 9.5 percent compared to January 2025 (National Bank ). This was mainly driven by global food price volatility, seasonal shifts in domestic food pricing, increased consumer demand, and annual adjustments to electricity tariffs. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for staple foods increased by 9.9 percent; for non-food items by 8.6 percent, for services by 11 percent and for fuel by 16 percent in January 2026 compared to the January 2025 (National Statistics Committee). The CPI indicates a moderate rise in the cost of essential food items, and a continued increase in the cost of services and fuel.
Despite strong headline growth, high food inflation and uneven income gains leave many households unable to afford a nutritious diet. The cost of a nutrient-adequate diet increased from KGS 779 in January–August to KGS 795 in JanuaryDecember 2025. The economic non-affordability of a nutritious diet remains a burden for 43 percent of the population in January – December 2025; 2 percent increase compared to January - August 2025. The highest levels of non-affordability observed in Batken province (81 percent) and Yssyk-Kol province (53 percent) (WFP).
Remittances remain a vital source of household income and food security. In 2025, remittances increased by 23 percent compared to the same period in 2024 (National Bank). Remittances from the Russian Federation (RF), the main source of inflows, increased only by 16 percent. The number of officially registered Kyrgyz labor migrants in the Russian Federation declined from 650,000 to approximately 350,000 in 2025, following the introduction of migration restrictions, while there is a growing tendency in Kyrgyz migrants seeking opportunities in non-CIS foreign countries (IOM).
In 2025, the Kyrgyz Republic maintained a moderate level of self-sufficiency in key food commodities, with domestic production covering 49 percent of wheat and wheat products, 51 percent of fruits and berries, 52 percent of vegetable oil, and 79 percent of eggs (Ministry of Agriculture). These figures underscore the country’s reliance on imported food, despite partial domestic production and the limited competitiveness of local producers (including millers). Imports remain substantial, accounting for 67 percent of wheat and 60 percent of vegetable oil in the domestic market.
Seasonal forecasts for February–April 2026 indicate a high likelihood of continued above-normal temperatures nationwide, coupled with a tendency toward drier-than-normal precipitation in key agricultural areas. These conditions that may accelerate early vegetation development and increase evapotranspiration, thereby heightening the risk of spring moisture deficits and localized drought stress.