Price Monitoring for Food Security in the Kyrgyz Republic, Issue #44 | 27 August 2021


This issue of the Price Monitoring Bulletin is prepared based on the operational daily food price data collected by the National Statistics Committee from 18 markets across the country and disaggregated at province level as the average value (Chuy province - Tokmok, Kara-Balta; Osh province - Osh, Uzgen, Kara-Suu and Nookat; Talas province - Talas and Manas; Naryn province - Naryn and Chaek; Batken province - Batken and Isfana; Jalal-Abad province - Jalal-Abad, Toktogul and Kerben; Yssyk-Kul province - Karakol and Balykchy; and Bishkek city). This is a secondary data analysis.

SITUATION UPDATE: The global economy is recovering from the effects of the pandemic faster, hastened by the stimulating measures of state support and the easing of quarantine restrictions as a result of ongoing mass vaccinations across countries. For the Kyrgyz Republic, the accelerated recovery of business activities in trading partner countries is also contributing to the restoration of trade and economic relations. However, high uncertainty remains regarding the development of both global and regional economies, given the risks of new more dangerous strains of COVID-19. From January-July 2021 there was a positive inflow of foreign currencies into the country with the net inflow of remittances from individuals increasing by 31.1 percent, amounting to USD 1.1 billion compared to the same period last year. Despite the above mentioned trends, from January-July 2021, GDP remained 1.6 percent lower compared to the previous year, totalling 337 billion Kyrgyz soms, due to the decline in industry, construction and agriculture sectors. In July 2021, compared to the same period last year, the Consumer Price Index, which measures price inflation, increased by 11.3 percent for all goods and services and by 18.4 percent for staple foods (+26 percent for meat, +5 percent for bread products, +11 percent for milk and dairy products, +53 percent for oils and fats, +27 percent for vegetables and +26 percent for sugar). The observed increase in food prices in world markets and the limited supply in producing countries will determine the risk of continued growth in consumer prices in the country for the second half of 2021. A possible increase of the cost of a number of administrative prices and tariffs could further contribute to increase the inflation rate in 2021. Rising food prices are also affecting households’ access to a nutritious diet, vital for all-around growth and development. Due to abnormal high temperatures this summer and a lack of irrigation water during the growing season, the total harvest of wheat decreased by 41.4 percent, barley - by 57.9 percent, fruit and berry crops - by 31.2 percent, potatoes - by 6,3 percent and melons - by 3.5 percent.
Along with this, compared to the same period of last year, there was a significant increase by 8.2 percent of vegetables production. The Government continues to monitor and stabilize food markets across the country through price controls on 11 essential food items and to regulate import and export volumes.