This issue of the Price Monitoring Bulletin is prepared based on the operational daily food price data collected by the National Statistics Committee from 18 markets across the country and disaggregated at province level as the average value (Chuy province - Tokmok, Kara-Balta; Osh province - Osh, Uzgen, Kara-Suu and Nookat; Talas province - Talas and Manas; Naryn province - Naryn and Chaek; Batken province - Batken and Isfana; Jalal- Abad province - Jalal-Abad, Toktogul and Kerben; Yssyk-Kul province - Karakol and Balykchy; and Bishkek city). This is a secondary data analysis.
The imposed restrictive measures due to the spread of new strains of COVID-19 and the slow vaccination rate of the world's population continue to have a moderating effect on the growth of the global economy. In January-March 2021, the Kyrgyz Republic’s GDP decreased by 9.4 percent totalling 118.4 billion Kyrgyz soms. Negative trends continued to be observed in the construction, wholesale and retail trade sectors. The service sectors accounted for the highest share of GDP at 49.1 percent. Although domestic demand remains weak, there are signs of economic recovery like the positive inflow of foreign currencies into the country. In January-February 2021, remittances to the country increased by 6.4 percent (amounting to USD 254.1 million). The Consumer Price Index, which measures price inflation, increased by 10.3 percent for all goods and services and by 18 percent for staple foods (+24.3 percent for meat, +9.6 percent for bread products, +11.6 percent for milk and dairy products, +45.8 percent for oils and fats, +17.6 percent for vegetables, and +24.4 percent for sugar). The main pressure on the dynamics of food prices is being exerted by external factors, such as the accelerated growth of world food markets and the limited supply in producer countries. A possible increase in the cost of a number of administered tariffs will additionally contribute to the overall inflation in the country. Indeed, within the EAEU, the Kyrgyz Republic experienced the highest increase of prices and tariffs (1.1 percent). These aforementioned pro-inflationary factors are predicted to cause a higher level of inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic by the end of 2021 (NBKR). Rising food prices are also affecting households’ access to a nutritious diet, vital for all-round growth and development. The Government continues to monitor and stabilize food markets across the country through price controls on 11 essential food items and regulating import and export volumes. The Eurasian Economic Commission adopted a decree on the creation of a working group for the prompt supply of agricultural goods between EAEU countries in the event of a shortage of agricultural goods within their domestic markets.