It is expected that the current-account deficit will narrow to an annual average of 5.2% of GDP in 2018-19, despite rising import demand owing to a resurgence in remittances. The increase in gold prices in 2018 will lead to higher export earnings from the Kumtor gold mine.
Output from the Kumtor mine will continue play an extremely important role for the economy. real GDP growth of is expected to reach 4% in 2018 driven by the increase in commodity prices, inflation will remain below the central bank's target of 5-7%. The inflation rate was registered at 2.7% in March. In the first two months of the year remittances continued to grow by more than 20% compared with 2017, according to data published by the NBKR. However, persistently high imports will dampen growth.
On a positive note, consumer prices fell in April after rising in the previous semester. Apples are currently the only commodity with abnormally high price in the market. In the last months, the Kyrgyz som has been stable against US dollar, and Kazakh tenge; while increasing slightly against Russian ruble.