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Kyrgyzstan

Country Brief - The global food and economic crisis’ impact on food system resilience: Kyrgyz Republic (November, 2023)

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Background

The global food and economic crisis heightened inequalities and vulnerabilities in a world still confronting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effect of the ongoing climate change. The ramifications of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine has had major implications for food security and diets across the world, given both countries’ key roles in global food markets and the Russian Federation’s prominence in global energy trade. In this context, food system resilience is crucial to maintain or adapt its functions in the face of shocks, and ultimately for system sustainability. Through a series of key indicators, this brief describes how the food system has been affected by this ongoing crisis, provides an overview of its resilience and potential opportunities for building resilience further.

HOW HAS KYRGYZ REPUBLIC BEEN EXPOSED TO SHOCKS SINCE 2020?

In the last 3 years, the Kyrgyz Republic has faced various shocks and stressors including, but not limited to the impacts of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, that have affected the food system and its resilience in various ways. A number of these stressors stem from climate change, including melting glaciers, abnormal dryness in 2022 and 2023, and natural resource-related conflicts with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2021 and 2022/2023, respectively.

Like the rest of the world, the Kyrgyz Republic was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. To minimize COVID-19 spread, the government rapidly implemented strict containment strategies such as school closures and restrictions of movements and public gatherings among others, which can impact various domains of the food system (eg. supply chain, consumer environment, consumer behaviors). These measures were progressively lifted over the next two years. The country also adopted supportive economic policies such as income support for the population (e.g., cash allowances for poor families with children, and unemployment support for those who were laid off), following the same timeline, but maintained them at a high level from mid-2021 onwards (Figure 1).

While the Kyrgyz Republic currency (Som, KGS) exchange rate – relative to the US dollar (USD) – has been stable since 2016, the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic was marked by a depreciation of the Som: 70 KGS per USD in 2019 up to 85 in 2021. The exchange rate stagnated at a high level in 2022 (84 KGS/USD) (Figure 2). The Kyrgyz Republic is exposed to significant natural hazards, experiencing an average of 200 emergencies annually, resulting in approximately US$30-35 million in damages and losses. Earthquakes are the main contributor to economic losses, with notable events in 1992, 1997, and 2008 causing over 130 fatalities, impacting nearly 150,000 people, and resulting in almost US$200 million in losses. Floods also pose a substantial threat, affecting about 80,000 people each year, with estimated losses of US$70 million. Other hazards, such as landslides, mudflows, and avalanches, accounted for 8%, 39%, and 27% of total disasters and emergencies, respectively, between 2012-2019.

Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, the Kyrgyz Republic is recognized as vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranked 75th out of 181 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index. In its annual country report 2020, WFP noted that in addition to the economic crisis, weather anomalies had a substantial impact on the food security of households, especially farmers. Approximately one in five farmers in project-targeted areas cited unfavorable weather conditions as a key challenge during the planting season. Abnormal spring frosts in April caused substantial damage to fruit and vegetable crops. Access to irrigation was another major concern in 2020, with lower precipitation levels observed since the beginning of the year, particularly in Chuy, Batken, Osh, and Talas provinces. In addition, an August 2021 WFP Situation Report documented abnormal dryness conditions and lower levels of irrigation water in Chuy Province, which is home to 31.5 percent of the country’s total planting area.