Review of Tropical Cyclone Situation:
As of this date, there have been 26 numbered cyclones in the Southern Indian Ocean and Southwest Pacific Ocean this season which is about average for this time period. Of the 26, only 2 had significant impact on the African continent. The first was in late October (#2) that hit Tanzania and the second was in late January (#12) that entered the Mozambique Channel and made landfall onto Madagascar. The attached figure, which provides the average number of tropical cyclones by month, illustrates that the tropical cyclone season is essentially over. We will continue to monitor the situation at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/CYCLONES/cyclones.html
Weather Hazards Assessment Graphic:
Weather Hazards Text Explanation:
1. A below normal wet season in northern and eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and northeastern Tanzania has reduced moisture available for crops. The driest conditions are in eastern Kenya. This seasons deficit ranges from 50 mm to 250 mm, and many locations are adding onto deficits from previous years. In the northern part of Kenya, conditions have improved as a result of heavy rains that fell during the end of May. Dry conditions prevailed over the region during the past week and the coming week will likely be similar.
2. Hydroelectric production in Uganda continues to be impaired by Lake Victoria’s below normal lake levels. Conditions have been improving recently and lake levels are now only 0.64 meters below normal. Light showers fell on the lake during the past week and a few more showers are expected during the coming period.
3. Coastal sections of Corte d’Ivoire and Ghana have received over 150 mm of rain during the past week and more heavy rain is expected during the coming period. This has swollen rivers and increased the risk of flooding in the area.
4. A poor wet season in portions of Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and extreme northeastern South Africa have created deficits between 200 mm and 600 mm. This amounts to only 30% to 60% of normal rainfall in the region. The drought has caused crop failures and degraded pasture. The most severely impacted areas are Gaza and Inhamambane provinces in Mozambique and Manicaland and Masvingo provinces in Zimbabwe. The next best chance for rain will be in December.
5. Flooding continues along the Jubba and Shebelle Rivers in Somalia. Runoff from the heavy precipitation over the Ethiopia highlands has raised water levels in rivers downstream from the heaviest of the rain. The rains have since slowed down considerably and the risk for flooding will go down after the precipitation that has already fallen makes its way to the ocean.
AUTHOR: Eric J Wolvovsky
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Alvin.Miller@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7552
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID. The FEWS NET weather hazards assessment process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned.