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Key messages
Wajir County is experiencing worsening drought conditions following the poor performance of the October–November–December (OND) 2025 short rains.
The drought situation is currently classified at the Alert Stage on a worsening trend.
Approximately 80-90 percent of the population are dependent on Pastoral and AgroPastoral livelihoods, making households highly vulnerable to climatic shocks. Livestock remains the main source of food and income, contributing nearly 80 percent of household income in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones.
Pasture and browse conditions are poor to very poor, with significant livestock migration reported within and outside the county. Livestock body condition scores are largely fair to poor across all the species. Milk production is below the long-term averages, thus negatively affecting household dietary diversity and child nutrition. Livestock market activity is low, with depressed prices due to poor body condition and limited demand.
Water availability remains critical. Seasonal water pans recorded only 10–20 percent recharge and are projected to dry up by mid-December 2025. Approximately 70 percent of boreholes are operational, but are overstretched; operating for extended hours with frequent breakdowns.
Settlements dependent on water trucking increased from 130 in October 2025 to 177 in December 2025. Trekking distances, waiting times, and water costs are above normal, while per capita water consumption is below minimum standards, thus increasing public health risks.
The nutrition situation is deteriorating. NDMA sentinel surveillance data (November 2025) indicates that 12.6 percent of children aged 6–59 months are at risk of moderate acute malnutrition, reflecting worsening food access and reduced milk availability.
Water scarcity and shared human-livestock water sources have increased the risk of waterborne diseases, with diarrhoeal cases already reported in several locations.
Drought-related migration, water shortages and pressure on school meals and sanitation are likely to affect enrolment, attendance and retention when schools reopen in January 2026, particularly in hotspot areas experiencing population influx.
There is a high risk of resource-based conflict, driven by increased in-migration of pastoralists from neighboring counties and cross-border areas. Conflict hotspots include parts of Tarbaj, Wajir North and Eldas sub-counties and the border areas with Isiolo and Marsabit counties.
Based on current outcomes, Wajir County is classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Approximately 20 percent of the population (174,200 people) is currently food insecure and in need of humanitarian assistance.
With continued deterioration in rangeland resources and livestock productivity, more households are projected to move into IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and Phase 4 (Emergency) over the next three months in the absence of scaled-up assistance.
Without timely and coordinated multi-sectoral response, the county is likely to experience worsening food insecurity, increased malnutrition, livelihood erosion and heightened resource-based conflict risk during the January–March 2026 period.