Turkana County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2020


Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

  • Depressed rainfall with a temporal distribution of 1-2 days was experienced in some sections of Turkana West and South in September. Cumulative rainfall received during the 6-month period (April to September 2020) represents 242 percent of the total rainfall normally received for the period. However, the forecast points to a more than average chance of below normal rainfall as evidenced by the SPI3 for the short rains season.

  • Save for the Fisheries zone, vegetation condition remained stable with above normal greenness as depicted by the unchanged VCI-3month value of 91 but the forecast indicates a deteriorating trend driven by the enhanced probability of below normal soil moisture across the outlook period.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

  • Body condition for all livestock species was fair but on a deteriorating trend while household access distance to water source increased but remained within the seasonal range.

  • Milk production and hence consumption level declined further falling outside the normal range but cost of water was normal.

  • Despite the terms of trade falling above the normal range, a drop was recorded in September and no livestock death attributed to starvation was reported but migration resumed.

  • Majority of households were consuming staples and vegetables every day, accompanied by oil and pulses a few times in a week albeit with a minimally adequate diet.
    Proportion of under-fives who were moderately and severely malnourished remained stable and within the seasonal range.