Turkana County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2020

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

• Rainfall with a distribution in time of 3-4 days was experienced along the Western side of the County in November. Cumulative rainfall received during the 6-month period (June-November 2020) accounted for 88 percent of the normal rainfall for that span of time. The outlook for December as evidenced by the SPI3 indicates enhanced probability of below normal rainfall.

• Condition of overhead vegetation (greenness) was stable as evidenced by the VCI-3month value of 93. Save for the Fisheries livelihood zone, above normal vegetation/forage greenness was observed across most parts of the County.
Driven by the enhanced probability of below normal soil moisture, a negative trend is expected in December.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

• Livestock body condition for all species was fair except in the Fisheries zone while household access distance to water source was stable and within the seasonal range.

• Milk production and consumption level remained unchanged and below the normal range for the month under review.

• Stability was observed in the terms of trade and was above the normal range. There were no deaths attributed to starvation but migration was taking place.

• Proportion of under-fives ‘at risk’ did not shift remarkably and the approximately 18 percent of households were experiencing poor FCS outcomes. Select few households along the Fisheries zone were applying severe consumption based coping strategies frequently during the month of November.