Turkana County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2020

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators
• Select few areas on the Western side of the County received highly depressed rainfall for 1-2 days culminating to cessation during dekad one of December. Noteworthy, total rainfall for the 6-month period (July-December 2020) represents only 72 percent of the rainfall normally received within that duration. Further, the weather outlook for January points to the likelihood of maximum temperatures exceeding 360 C.
• Deterioration in the condition of vegetation was witnessed as evidenced by the shift in the VCI-3month index downwards from the previous month. The Fisheries and the Eastern areas of the Pastoral livelihood zones remained the most affected.
• The water situation was declining and inadequate especially in sites not well served with boreholes. In addition, most open water sources were below 25 percent capacity in December.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

• Save for the Fisheries zone, the body condition for all species was fair while the household return distance to water source was stable but for livestock it increased albeit marginally.
• Milk production and consumption level declined and was outside the seasonal range. Terms of trade remained stable but exceptionally low in Turkana North and despite out-migration being witnessed, there were no deaths attributed to starvation.
• Proportion of households’ categorized as having a poor FCS increased but there was no significant shift in the proportion of moderately malnourished under-fives. Notably, households’ were applying more severe coping strategies in December.