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Kenya

Tana River County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2021

Attachments

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Drought Phase: ALARM-WORSENING

Biophysical Indicators
 Biophysical indicators are showing negative trends away from expected seasonal ranges.
 Below average amount of rainfall were received in the month of September 2021.
 The September Vegetation Condition Index values for Tana North-Bura,Galole and Tana river sub-county are below normal and indicating moderate drought for the county with slight improvement.
 The Water levels in most water pans were below normal at 2-3(10%-30%) in Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production indicators:
 The forage condition is very poor and depleted in pastoral and marginal mixed but fair in mixed farming livelihoods in both quality and quantity.
 Livestock body condition is stressed in mixed and critical in marginal mixed and pastoral livelihood zones.
 Milk production is below average in Pastoral and marginal mixed livelihood zones. This is attributed to poor forage and pasture conditions.
 95% of Livestock have migrated towards the fall back grazing fields of Tana Delta.

Access indicators
 Terms of trade on a decreasing trend due to increasing prices of maize and decreasing goat prices due to poor body condtions.
 Distances to water sources for households currently above averages compared to normal.

Utilization indicators:
 The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition currently on the increase compared to normal.
 Copping strategy index for households is on an increasing trend due to below average milk and crop production. Indicating more households are currently food insecure.