Tana River County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2015


Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

  • The biophysical indicators show negative fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges.

  • There was hardly any rainfall received within month of September.

  • The vegetation conditions are gradually reducing with the overall county VCI of 41.27 which is a great reduction in the vegetation biomass in comparison to the month of August, which had a VCI of 43.92. However the county VCI falls within the normal ranges of 35-50. Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of 43.34 and 50.4 which is a greater reduction compared to last month. The situation is deteriorating in Bura with a VCI of 28.9 which is below normal compared to last month.

  • SPI for May stood at 0.33.

  • Currently the state of water sources is at the range of 2-3 in the county.
    This is the normal range during this season of the year and the situation is expected to deteriorate as the dry spell progresses.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

  • There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the progression of the dry spell, migrations of livestock moving towards the marginal and mixed livelihood zones is expected to increase.

  • Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is deteriorating in all livelihood zones. This is expected to worsen with the ongoing dry spell.

  • Milk production has greatly reduced and below the seasonal normal ranges.
    Utilization indicators The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years that are at risk remained Stable ranging between 9- 10 % in comparison with the month of august. This could be attributed to ongoing relief interventions.