Tana River County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2021

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Drought Phase:ALERT-STABLE

Biophysical Indicators

 Biophysical indicators are showing negative trends away from expected seasonal ranges.

 Below average amount of rainfall were received in the month of May 2021.

 The May Vegetation Condition Index values for Tana North-Bura,Galole and Tana river subcounty are below normal and indicating moderate drought.

 The Water levels in most water pans were below normal at 3(10%-45%) in Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production indicators:

 The forage condition is fair to poor in pastoral and marginal mixed but fair mixed livelihoods in both quality and quantity.

 Livestock body condition is fair to good in mixed and fair to poor in marginal mixed and pastoral livelihood zones.

 Milk production is above average in mixed and marginal mixed livelihood zones. This is attributed to fair forage and pasture conditions.

 Early Livestock migrations were reported towards the traditional grazing fields.

Access indicators

 Terms of trade still above normal range but on a decreasing trend due in increasing prices of maize and decreasing goat prices.

 Distances to water sources for households currently above averages compared to normal.

Utilization indicators:

 The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition currently on the increase compared to normal.

 Copping strategy index for households is on a increasing trend due to below average milk production.